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If you ask me now who looks most like a champion in this World Cup.
My answer wouldn't change.
France.
Not because they play the most beautiful football, but because they are the team most capable of bringing the championship home.
Even the world's largest on-chain prediction market, Polymarket, now has France at the top of the championship probability, with an implied probability close to 19%, ahead of Argentina and Spain.
For a prediction market that aggregates billions of dollars in trading volume, this ranking itself represents the attitude of capital.
But I'm bullish on France, not because of Polymarket.
But because they already possess the three most important conditions for a championship team.
First, the squad has no obvious weaknesses.
The frontline has Mbappé, there are threats on the wings, the midfield can control the tempo, the defense has experience, and the bench has enough depth to change the course of the game.
Second, they are playing more and more maturely.
France now wins games not by relying on a single star to step up and solve problems, but by the entire team knowing when to press and when to hold steady.
This kind of team is truly suitable for World Cup knockout rounds.
Third, and most importantly.
They almost never waste opportunities.
The World Cup has never been a league season.
There is no time to adjust your form; if you play one game poorly, you could be sent home directly.
And the stability France has shown so far is the strongest among all championship-contending teams.
Of course, I'm not saying France has already pocketed the championship.
What truly decides their fate is not the group stage, but whether their midfield can regain control of the game's tempo when facing top teams like Spain and Argentina in the knockout rounds.
If I were to make a judgment now.
I would still put France as the top pick.
Not because they will definitely win the championship.
But looking at the entire World Cup, I have not yet seen a second team that looks more like a champion than France.
#世界杯2026
#预测市场