Although we repeatedly do not believe that the performance of the US economic data is so strong, the "expectation management" master may have achieved the desired "soft landing" dream, but how long can this dream last?

Although we have many doubts about the quality of US economic data, as US investors or scholars, we have also raised many questions. However, beneath the economic data, the market's reaction seems to have already achieved a 'soft landing' dream.

And how long will this dream last? Whether it will break is not something we can currently anticipate.

Looking at the closing of the US stock market on Friday, the S&P, Nasdaq, Dow, and Russell 2000 all rose. The Nasdaq led the rise, followed by the S&P, with the latter two rising only half as much as the former. There was no further rotation of funds in the zone today, under the expectation of interest rate cuts.

Although the first half of the US stock market saw a decline last night, a quick turnaround in the early morning almost wiped out yesterday's decline, and the early morning also saw a decline in the yield of the US 10-year Treasury bond, with the yield currently rising to around 3.9%.

This is no longer a trade based on expected interest rate cuts. The performance reflects traders' confidence in the economy after anticipating interest rate cuts.

Especially in the government bond sector, the short-term price drop and rising yield of the 10-year US Treasury bond can be interpreted as traders re-evaluating their investment strategies.

In a rate-cutting environment, if traders expect a stronger economy with increasing growth, this will temporarily decrease the demand for government bonds, causing bond prices to drop and yields to rise.

So, combining with the performance of the stock market, the Nasdaq and the S&P continue to remain strong. The situation on Friday can be interpreted as traders optimistically believing that after the interest rate cut, the United States may be able to achieve a possible "soft landing" of the economy. There are even some voices suggesting that there may be signs of the economy not landing after the interest rate cut. (Not landing: the economy increases rather than decreases after the interest rate cut, rising rapidly, while maintaining stable inflation, moderate employment, and low unemployment rate).

The above paragraph is not what I said. It is mentioned in the headline of Bloomberg on Saturday. Of course, at the end of the article, it also mentions that some people believe that even if there is a soft landing, it is only a latency of the time for a hard landing, which is a more pessimistic view.

Actually, by observing the market situation on Friday and combining it with the media's tendencies in these reports, I have a feeling that the Fed's expected management methods may not only be focused on economic data, but even extend to the market.

The feeling I got from the Friday closing was one word - market making.

Stabilizing the financial market will bring about optimistic economic prosperity, which will result in a relatively mild response from the market for the first interest rate cut. Then, based on the actual situation and using economic data to maintain stability, as long as there is no major unexpected event, the stability can last as long as possible.

Although the economic data may be criticized as inaccurate and even undermine credibility, once the final result of this interest rate cut really achieves a soft landing, and a stable economy, perhaps no one will care about the previous actions. By then, everyone may be busy trading in the financial market that is being 'flooded'.

Of course, as an investor, I also hope that all of this is true. After all, the optimistic sentiment brought by stable interest rate cuts due to economic factors will gradually improve the global economic and financial market environment.

If next week, the US stock market can continue this sentiment and gradually recover the overall decline of this week (especially the Nasdaq), then the crypto market will also improve with the sentiment. Wait for the reaction next week, oh, the US stock market will only open on Tuesday next week.
#美股 BTC #US economy