ETH Price Forecast: Can it reclaim the $3000 level?

1. Technical analysis: bearish trend dominates, downside risk persists. EMA signal: the short-term EMA is below the long-term EMA, indicating that the market is still dominated by sellers and there is significant downside pressure.
- Key Support Level:
- The first support: $2,356, if broken, may further test $2,163.
- Psychological barrier: $3,000, breaking through will release a bullish signal.
- Potential rebound target:
- $3,300: After breaking through $3,000, the bulls may push ETH to test this level.
- $3,744: If the buying pressure remains strong, ETH may challenge the highest price since January 6th.
On-chain data: Short-term selling pressure, long-term holders remain firm
- Exchange Inventory: ETH exchange balance continues to decline, indicating that long-term holders are still accumulating.
- Miners' Holdings: The amount of Ethereum miner holdings remains stable, with no signs of large-scale selling.
- Derivatives Market: The funding rate of perpetual contracts has turned negative, indicating short-term dominance of bears. However, the open interest of options contracts shows that the put/call ratio is not out of control.
Future Outlook: $3000 is a key watershed
- Short-term: If ETH can hold the support at $2,356, the market may enter a consolidation phase; if it falls below, it may further test $2,163.
- Mid-term: Breaking through $3,000 will reverse the bearish sentiment, pushing ETH to test $3,300 or even $3,744.