Understand the impact of the US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) on the Federal Reserve (FED) interest rate cuts in three scenarios with one chart [举手]
Weak (less than 100,000): A rate cut is possible in July, indicating a significant cooling in the job market;
Mildly weak (100,000–140,000): The probability of a rate cut in September is very high, but more data is needed for confirmation.
Strong (more than 170,000): Possible delay until the end of the year or no cuts, due to economic resilience and ongoing inflationary pressures.
The first scenario: The data is particularly poor, for example, if the nu
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