Crypto_Xincheng

Will international war cause BTC to drop to 38,000?
Historical patterns and recent real-world cases show a consistent trend:
Short-term: Risk assets are sold off across the board, and BTC often follows the stock market and margin liquidations downward. On the day/week U.S.-Russia conflict broke out in 2022, BTC plunged 10–15% at once; similar 7–10% flash crashes occurred during Iran-related conflicts in 2025–2026.
Medium-term (weeks to months): Two possible paths
① If the war escalates rapidly, oil prices surge, inflation expectations spiral out of control, and liquidity tightens → BTC may con

Market Hotspots
1. The large-scale U.S.-Israel strike on Iran, killing the highest leader and triggering retaliation, is analyzed to support oil prices and precious metals as safe-haven assets due to Middle East geopolitical risks. Focus points include the duration of the conflict and the potential long-term disruption of the Strait of Hormuz;
2. On the previous trading day, the three major U.S. stock indices all declined, impacted by rising PPI inflation, a credit crisis, and the risk of U.S.-Iran war;
3. The U.S. dollar index strengthened alongside fluctuations in non-U.S. currencies. The an

As the digital gold of cryptocurrencies, why do Bitcoin's price movements run counter to gold?
1. Liquidity and "ATM Attribute" Differences (Most Core Reason)
Gold: Low holding costs (storage fees, insurance), liquidity actually improves during crises (institutions, central banks, reserve holdings buy directly). During crises, people don't sell gold but buy more.
Bitcoin: 24/7 trading, high leverage, extremely high liquidity → becomes the world's first high-risk asset that can be instantly liquidated.
2. Completely Different Risk Attributes (High β vs. Low β)
Gold: Low volatility, counter-cycl

#Why Is the Cryptocurrency Market So Volatile After the US and Israel Attack Iran?
Today’s escalation caused the total crypto market capitalization to drop from approximately $2.24 trillion to around $2.17 trillion, evaporating $70 billion to $128 billion in a short period.
① Risk aversion dominates: Cryptocurrencies are viewed as high-risk assets (similar to tech stocks) rather than "digital gold" safe-haven assets. Investors prioritize reducing holdings of highly volatile assets amid uncertainty, shifting to cash or traditional safe havens.
② Weekend amplification effect: US stocks and oil m

2.28 BTC Evening Market Analysis
A few days ago, I mentioned that the support at 62,900 would lead to a rebound, and after reaching 69,700, it pulled back. Currently, it has returned to around 62,900. We can see that the current market is still quite weak. Coupled with macroeconomic news and global turbulence, there is a lot of uncertainty in the financial markets. The 62,900 level is the key support for this phase of the market. If this level is broken, then the 60,000 level may not hold, and the price could drop toward 55,000. Therefore, the recent market has mainly been consolidating, and w

2.26 ETH Market Analysis
Yesterday, the idea for Ethereum was that as long as it doesn't break below 1800, it will look for a rebound. Yesterday also formed a large bullish candle topping the central zone. Currently, the key level to watch is the 12-hour timeframe. After the divergence at this level, whether it can gain momentum remains to be seen. Additionally, pay attention to whether the fast and slow lines on the 4-hour timeframe can stay above the zero line. The most important resistance is at 2130, which is the upper boundary of the range. As long as it can hold above this level, it can

2.26 BTC Market Analysis
In the past few days, our approach to BTC has been that as long as it doesn't break 63,000, we will look for a rebound. Based on our expectations, a rebound has occurred. I also discussed yesterday that my strategy is to watch for a rebound after a divergence on the 12-hour chart. Currently, the divergence has already formed, so the overall trend still hasn't fully rebounded.
For intraday trading, a very important level to watch is the 1-hour level. After breaking through 66,400 at this position, it faced resistance at the previous resistance level of 69,800 and pulle

2.25 ETH Morning Analysis
Ethereum's support level yesterday was at 1800. As mentioned earlier, if 1800 holds, a rebound is expected. Currently, on the daily chart, the adjustment has not been completed. Watch for when the fast and slow moving averages hover around the zero line, which will indicate the potential end of the trend. Additionally, this level should be considered in conjunction with the market depth of Bitcoin. On the daily chart, a double bottom pattern is forming, and attention should also be paid to whether a divergence can develop on the 12-hour chart to drive strength on the

2.25 BTC Morning Market Analysis
Bitcoin, as we expected yesterday, retraced after reaching around 63,000 and then rebounded. However, the rebound momentum is limited. As long as the current level does not break below 62,900 on the daily chart, it will form a double bottom. At the same time, this level is likely to maintain a sideways consolidation. Therefore, in the short term, there is a rebound demand at this level. Currently, attention should be paid to whether the 12-hour timeframe can form a divergence to drive the bullish momentum on the 4-hour and hourly charts.
In summary, today’s ma

2.24 ETH Market Analysis
From a broader perspective, Ethereum hasn't fully retraced yet, but currently, it's not a good time to go short at this position. What to watch for today is whether the price breaks below the four-hour level at 1800 and whether it can close above that level. If it can close above 1800, attention should be paid to this level, as it may trigger a rebound after an oversold condition. However, the rebound is unlikely to be strong, so entry points at this level are considered left-side entries. Conservative traders can patiently wait for opportunities on the right side. In

2.24 BTC Market Analysis
The market is extremely fearful, and many people are asking whether a reversal is possible at this level. I personally believe that the probability of a reversal at this point is very low. It requires attention to macro events and a relatively strong positive catalyst to have a chance. However, I think it's almost impossible at this stage. Currently, Bitcoin is undergoing a monthly-level correction at this position. From various timeframes, the correction has not been completed. When it dropped to 60,000 in early February, I mentioned to everyone to watch the 71,600 le

Major Events This Week
February 24
President Trump will deliver the State of the Union Address on February 24;
The US SEC will decide whether to increase the IBIT options position limit;
February 27
The US will release January PPI data on February 27 at 21:30;

Ranking of Safe Investments for Ordinary People

The chart below shows the upward trend line that has not been broken since 2019.
From a technical perspective, the 60,000 level is a very important support now, but we should not only rely on technical analysis and also consider macroeconomic factors.
At this level, the market makers will continue to create panic, dump, shake out, fake breakouts, fake breakdowns, and then cause liquidation in the futures market, only to then scoop low-priced chips from retail investors.
This will be followed by a violent rally across the entire crypto market.
What we need to do now is stay away from futures an

This anonymous user (ID: YqwbW9hr) predicts that by 2026, BTC will reach $1,000,000 and ETH will reach $100,000.
Famous 4chan crypto predictions include:
① 2018: BTC bottoms out on December 15 (accurate, with a price of about $3,200).
② 2021: BTC reaches $87,000 (close to accurate, with an actual peak of $69,000).
③ October 2025: BTC peaks at $126,000 (accurate).
These predictions have an accuracy rate of about 80-100%
#何时是最佳入场时机