The U.S. crypto regulatory milestone — the CLARITY Act — has entered a decisive legislative window. Senate Majority Leader Thune hopes to begin consideration before the August 7 recess, but admits final passage before recess is unlikely. Three major crypto trade associations have sent a joint letter urging the Senate to move forward. The House passed the bill on a bipartisan basis last year, with former House Financial Services Committee Chairman McHenry saying it's a matter of "when, not whether." Two major hurdles remain: Democrats are pushing for strict ethics provisions limiting crypto profits for the president and officials' relatives; the Senate needs 60 votes to overcome a filibuster, while Republicans hold only 52 seats. Polymarket puts the odds of passage this year at ~37%. With only a narrow window before the August recess, failure would push the timeline to September or beyond.
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