Gate Research: U.S.–Iran Military Conflict Continues to Escalate, House Crypto Tax Hearing Signals Legislative Momentum

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2026-06-10 07:10:51
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Last Updated 2026-06-10 09:16:24
BTC traded higher before reversing lower over the past 24 hours, with downside momentum accelerating after news of the U.S.–Iran conflict materialized. ETH moved largely in tandem with BTC throughout the session. Demand for SpaceX's latest IPO reportedly exceeded $250 billion, implying an oversubscription of approximately 4x. Some investors may have sold crypto assets to participate in the offering, potentially contributing to the recent market correction. H surged 149%, while EVAA and TX gained 31% and 30%, respectively. The United States launched multiple rounds of military strikes against Iran, targeting air defense systems and radar facilities, leading to lower openings across Japanese and South Korean equity markets. Meanwhile, a U.S. House hearing on cryptocurrency taxation signaled further legislative progress, reinforcing policy-driven optimism for the compliant digital asset sector.

Crypto Market Overview

  • BTC (-6.04% | $66,799): Over the past 24 hours, BTC remained under significant downward pressure. After reaching an intraday high of $74,408, the asset came under heavy selling following the sharp escalation of the U.S.–Iran military conflict and bearish developments including Strategy’s reported BTC sales, eventually falling to a low of $66,194.4, down approximately 6.04%. The current MA5 stands at around $67,046, MA10 at $67,210, MA20 at $68,338, and MA50 at $70,494. BTC has fallen below all four moving averages, with the gap between short- and medium-term averages continuing to widen, indicating a clear bearish trend. A daily MACD death cross has formed, and the expanding negative histogram suggests strong downside momentum. RSI (14) is hovering between 28 and 32, entering oversold territory, although oversold conditions may persist amid extremely bearish sentiment. ADX is around 42, confirming a strong downward trend. Spot Bitcoin ETF flows have also weakened, recording a net outflow of $483.8 million on June 1, with multiple days of net outflows over the past two weeks. Key support lies in the $66,000–$66,200 range. A decisive break below this level could open the door toward $64,000–$65,000. Resistance is located at $67,046 (MA5) and $68,338 (MA20). Unless tensions in the Middle East ease materially, BTC’s rebound potential may remain limited.

  • ETH (-6.48% | $1,860.2): ETH reached an intraday high of $2,046 before following the broader market sharply lower, touching a low of $1,839.47 and posting a daily decline of approximately 6.48%. From a technical perspective, MA5 is around $1,881, MA10 at $1,899, MA20 at $1,942, and MA50 at $1,969. ETH is trading below all major moving averages, with a clearly bearish structure in place. Any short-term recovery would first need to reclaim the MA5 level. The MACD death cross remains intact, with the negative histogram continuing to expand, indicating strong bearish momentum. RSI (14) is between 27 and 30, while ADX is around 44, signaling a strong trend environment. CCI is near -180, reflecting deeply oversold conditions. Immediate support is located at $1,839, with the next key support zone between $1,800 and $1,820. Resistance levels are found at $1,881 (MA5) and $1,942 (MA20). The liquidation risk associated with a large leveraged ETH long position has increased downside tail risk, and investors should closely monitor the possibility of cascading liquidations below $1,617.

  • Altcoins: The broader cryptocurrency market remained under pressure over the past 24 hours as macroeconomic risk sentiment weighed on investor appetite. Most major cryptocurrencies posted losses, while only a handful of tokens with near-term catalysts or strong sector narratives managed to outperform. Market sentiment remained cautious, with capital selectively flowing toward projects supported by favorable regulatory expectations or improving on-chain fundamentals. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index stands at 26, firmly in the Fear zone, reflecting a significant deterioration in short-term investor confidence.

  • Macro: On June 2, the S&P 500 rose 0.13% to close at 7,609.78, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.45% to 51,307.79. The Nasdaq Composite edged up 0.03%, ending the session at 27,093.90. As of 2:42 AM (UTC) on June 3, spot gold was trading at $4,479.37 per ounce, down 0.19% over the past 24 hours.

H Humanity Protocol (+149.70%, Circulating Market Cap: $168 Million)

According to Gate market data, H is currently trading at $0.1810, having reached an intraday high of $0.30, with gains exceeding 149% at one point. Humanity Protocol is a decentralized identity verification protocol focused on proving human uniqueness on-chain through biometric-based zero-knowledge proof (zkProof) technology. The project aims to combat the proliferation of AI bots while enabling fair distribution mechanisms for Universal Basic Income (UBI).

Today's sharp price movement was triggered by a major security incident. The project team announced that it had suffered a hack, with the stolen funds being tracked in real time. Relevant information has been shared with major CEXs, DEXs, and aggregators, while a 1 million USDT bounty has been offered for any information that could assist in recovering the funds. The team also pledged that all recovered assets would be used to buy back H tokens. This commitment sparked strong market expectations of future buyback demand, driving a sharp rally in the token price.

EVAA EVAA Protocol (+31.85%, Circulating Market Cap: $17.21 Million)

According to Gate market data, EVAA is currently trading at $0.4502, up 31.85% over the past 24 hours after rebounding strongly from an intraday low of $0.3402. EVAA Protocol is a decentralized lending protocol built on the TON blockchain, providing core DeFi services such as collateralized lending and liquidity mining. It is currently one of the leading lending infrastructures within the TON ecosystem.

EVAA's strong performance was primarily driven by continued momentum across the TON ecosystem, while DeFi lending protocols have attracted attention as relatively defensive assets during periods of market stress. Telegram's vast user base continues to provide a steady influx of new users to TON-based applications. As one of the ecosystem's flagship DeFi protocols, EVAA has benefited from sustained growth in both TVL and active addresses across the TON network.

TX TX (+30.09%, Circulating Market Cap: $462 Million)

According to Gate market data, TX is currently trading at $0.005860, up 30.09% over the past 24 hours after rebounding sharply from an intraday low of $0.004417. TX is the native Layer-1 token of the TX blockchain, positioned as a high-performance distributed ledger network. With a circulating market capitalization of approximately $462 million, it ranked among the top-performing large-cap tokens despite the broader market downturn.

TX's rally was primarily driven by a strong rebound from depressed price levels. As market sentiment entered an extreme fear phase, with the Fear Index falling to 9, some low-priced, high-beta blockchain tokens attracted speculative buying and experienced catch-up rallies. TX drew particular attention due to its relatively large circulating market capitalization. On-chain data shows a significant increase in trading volume, indicating strong short-term capital inflows. However, given the limited disclosure of project fundamentals, investors should exercise strict risk management and monitor whether volume and price action remain supportive of the rally.

Alpha Insights

Escalating U.S.-Iran Military Conflict Triggers Geopolitical Shock Across Crypto Markets

Over the past 24 hours, the United States has launched multiple rounds of military strikes against Iran, targeting air defense systems and radar installations. In response, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) announced that it had fired missiles and drones at U.S. military bases across the region, warning that any further hostile actions would be met with an "even harsher response." According to Axios, the U.S. had already conducted a third round of strikes by the start of the Asian trading session, signaling continued escalation.

The deteriorating geopolitical situation weighed heavily on global risk sentiment. Japanese and South Korean equities opened lower, with the Nikkei 225 down 0.77% and South Korea's KOSPI extending losses to 2.57%. In the U.S., the Nasdaq closed down 0.97% on Tuesday, while crypto-related stocks underperformed, with MicroStrategy (MSTR) falling 8% and Coinbase (COIN) declining 4.08%.

For the cryptocurrency market, the immediate impact of geopolitical tensions has manifested as a broad risk-asset selloff. BTC dropped to an intraday low of 60,773.70 USDT following the news, while ETH fell in tandem to 1,614.12 USDT. Historically, major geopolitical conflicts often trigger panic-driven selling in crypto markets during the initial phase. However, if tensions do not escalate further within several days, markets frequently experience a technical recovery after fear subsides. Investors should continue monitoring developments in U.S.-Iran negotiations and avoid excessive chasing or panic selling amid heightened volatility, while carefully managing portfolio risk exposure.

SpaceX IPO Oversubscribed by More Than 3.5x, Liquidity Drain May Temporarily Weigh on Crypto Markets

According to Reuters, Elon Musk's SpaceX IPO has attracted more than $250 billion in investor demand, representing an oversubscription ratio of approximately 3.5x to 4x against its planned $75 billion fundraising target. Final pricing is expected to be completed on Thursday afternoon. SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell and CFO Bret Johnsen met with approximately 300 institutional investors in Manhattan on Tuesday. Roadshow materials highlighted Starlink, artificial intelligence, and space-based data centers as the company's three primary growth engines, while estimating the addressable market for AI-related businesses at $23 trillion.

Several market analysts have suggested that investors liquidating other risk assets—including cryptocurrencies—to participate in the SpaceX IPO may be one of the factors behind Bitcoin's cumulative 37% decline from its January peak. Notably, once the IPO pricing process is completed on Thursday, some of the temporary liquidity pressure could ease, potentially allowing capital to rotate back into crypto markets.

In addition, SpaceX's latest amended S-1A filing disclosed an increase in total shares outstanding to 13.08 billion, approximately 1.2 billion shares higher than previous market estimates. Following the update, several centralized exchanges temporarily delisted SPCX Pre-IPO contracts and repriced them based on the revised share count. Market participants should closely monitor how valuations converge after the final pricing announcement.

U.S. House Crypto Tax Hearing Signals Legislative Progress, Supporting Compliance-Focused Sectors

On June 10, the U.S. House Ways and Means Committee held a hearing focused on digital asset taxation, discussing seven cryptocurrency-related tax bills. Key topics included establishing a tax exemption threshold for small crypto payments, deferring taxation on mining and staking rewards until the underlying assets are sold, and extending Wash Sale rules to digital assets. Committee Chairman Jason Smith stated that digital assets are no longer a passing phenomenon and that Congress must establish a clear tax framework for the industry. During the hearing, Coinbase Vice President of Tax Lawrence Zlatkin emphasized the urgency of regulatory clarity, noting that the continued expansion of the crypto industry makes comprehensive legislation increasingly necessary.

The hearing represents an important milestone in the development of the U.S. digital asset regulatory framework. Although some Democratic lawmakers remain cautious about specific provisions, the overall legislative direction is becoming increasingly clear. For market participants, greater tax clarity could significantly reduce long-term compliance uncertainty for both investors and traders, potentially encouraging broader institutional participation.

Projects operating within regulatory-friendly segments are likely to be among the primary beneficiaries. Real-world asset (RWA) tokenization protocols such as Ondo Finance, as well as compliance-oriented Layer-2 infrastructure providers such as Optimism, may benefit from clearer regulatory boundaries. Investors should pay close attention to the pace of legislative progress and any changes incorporated into the final versions of the proposed bills.

References:


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Author: Akane
Reviewer(s): Puffy, Kieran
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