Recently, I have gone through various ETFs in the US, looking for some assets that can withstand over 15 years. I won't mention the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, but I unexpectedly found that the 20-Year Treasury Bond TLT is a tough contender.

I really can't understand the oil market - those shorting are stubbornly pushing in one direction, and surprisingly, those going long are also stubbornly pushing in the same direction. What kind of operation is this? Just give up. Gold is bustling, but upon reviewing historical records, I found that its bull run has never lasted more than 15 years, and in a bear market, it can stagnate for 20 years. It’s so popular right now, but if it cools off one day, I might end up waiting 15 years to break even. Investing in gold feels like gambling on luck.

Interestingly, the oil and gas exploration equipment sector has a quite regular cycle—10 years for a complete rotation. There isn't much data related to grains; the available data shows bear markets lasting over a decade, followed by a bull market for the last 5 years. This thing moves in the opposite direction to TLT, making it worth keeping an eye on.

The current trend of shorting the 20-year Treasury bond (TMV) is quite similar to that of the agricultural ETF, and it could be the type of asset that bears for over a decade and then bulls for another decade. By linking TMV, TMF, and agriculture together, the core logic behind it is inflation. It's particularly important to pay attention to the time point when the two mirror inverse each other in a certain year.

There are really not many research tools for the long-term cycles of US stock interest rates, and there are few people who care. Compared to price fluctuations, I care more about the time span of trends. How many lifetimes can one wait for something that has been bearish for 20 years? Instead, the short-term large fluctuations are tempting, like BTC. Oil and gas exploration ETFs really deserve some effort in research.

Of course, TQQQ and BTC, which have a bearish short and bullish long, definitely take the top spot, and most of my energy is focused here. But I also have to guard against the possibility of TQQQ moving sideways for 10 years or BTC’s returns being much less than before, so I picked up 20-year treasury bonds for hedging.