SBF has spoken out frequently after his fellow inmate was pardoned, but the market still predicts that his chances of being released this year remain extremely low.

On December 5, according to monitoring by PolyBeats, Trump pardoned former Honduran President Juan Orlando Hernández (JOH) on December 2, who had previously been serving a sentence in New York for cocaine trafficking. Coincidentally, SBF, the founder of FTX who was arrested in 2022, was once a cellmate of JOH. Three hours ago, SBF posted on X stating that he had spent a significant amount of time helping JOH prepare for trial, review evidence, and even draft legal documents. In his post, SBF described JOH as “the most innocent prisoner I’ve ever seen, even including myself.” Some speculate that SBF is making a high-profile statement to emphasize his behind-the-scenes role in JOH’s release, aiming to show his support for Trump’s pardon policy, thereby paving the way for his own pardon or sentence reduction. It is reported that since early 2025, SBF’s family has been openly lobbying Trump and arranging meetings with his allies. However, on the prediction market Polymarket, the probability for the question “Will Trump pardon SBF in 2025?” has hardly been affected, remaining at an extremely low level of around 2%. Most traders believe that SBF’s alleged $8 billion fraud case has caused serious negative impact on the crypto industry and users, making the possibility of his pardon very slim.