The flames of war "bloodbath" the world, and the global markets face a black swan!

February 28, 2026, the Middle East powder keg is ignited once again. U.S. President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu simultaneously announced a major military strike against Iran, codenamed “Lion’s Roar Operation.” Unlike the limited conflict that lasted 12 days in June 2025, this time, the fighting quickly spreads across the Persian Gulf, with Iran blockading the Strait of Hormuz, cutting off the world’s energy gateway.

As of March 4, this war has entered its fifth day, and global capital markets are experiencing a “massacre” more terrifying than the war itself.

1. 48-Hour Shock: From Decapitation to Strait Blockade February 28: Joint Declaration of War

● The U.S. and Israel launch a coordinated military strike against Iran. Trump posts a video on social media stating the goal is to “eliminate the urgent threat posed by the Iranian regime.” Israel names the operation “Lion’s Roar.” Key targets include downtown Tehran, near Supreme Leader Khamenei’s office and the presidential palace. It is later confirmed that Khamenei was killed in the attack.

March 1: Iran’s Retaliation Begins

● Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) announces the launch of “True Commitment-4” operation, firing multiple rounds of attacks on U.S. forces. The IRGC claims to have launched ballistic missiles at the U.S. aircraft carrier Lincoln in the Arabian Sea and struck 27 U.S. military bases across the Middle East. Israel’s Defense Forces report killing 40 Iranian military commanders and dismantling most of Iran’s western air defense systems.

March 2-3: Escalation and Spillover

● The conflict rapidly spreads to multiple Gulf countries. Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, and others are hit by missile attacks or affected. Iran declares the Strait of Hormuz is fully under Iranian naval control, banning navigation, and reports that over a dozen oil tankers ignoring warnings have been hit and burned. U.S. Central Command states it has conducted over 1,700 strikes against targets inside Iran. Iran claims to have hit two U.S. THAAD missile defense systems.

Early morning March 4: Attacks on U.S. Warships

● IRGC issues Statement No. 19, claiming missile attacks on strategic U.S. targets in the Indian Ocean, targeting a U.S. destroyer and supply ship 650 km off Iran’s coast, both of which caught fire after being hit.

2. Cutting Off the “Global Oil Valve”: An Unwinnable Energy Gamble

If the 2025 conflict was merely a “surgical warning,” this time Iran has played its trump card—blocking the Strait of Hormuz.

● As the only waterway connecting the Persian Gulf and Indian Ocean, the Strait of Hormuz accounts for about 32% of global seaborne oil exports and 20% of liquefied natural gas shipments. Under normal conditions, approximately 16 million barrels of oil pass through daily. By March 3, this number had plummeted to 4 million barrels.

● This is not just an energy supply disruption but a shake to the foundation of the global economy. The Economist describes the current situation as “the biggest oil crisis in years.”

● JPMorgan’s commodities team warns that if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains restricted for 3 to 4 weeks, the Gulf oil-producing countries’ existing onshore inventories can only sustain about 25 days of exports. After that, production will be forced to halt due to storage limits. At that point, Brent crude could rise above $100 per barrel, and a global recession would be almost inevitable.

● As of market close on March 3, WTI crude oil prices had surged over 8% intraday, approaching $77 per barrel. Wall Street traders are frantically long on oil and selling off risk assets across the board.

3. Black Tuesday: Collective Collapse from Seoul to Wall Street

While the smoke of war has yet to reach East Asia, the financial storm has already arrived. On March 3, global capital markets experienced a true “Black Tuesday.”

South Korea: The Canary in the Coal Mine

● As the “canary” of the global economy, South Korea’s stock market suffered an unprecedented plunge. With about 70% of its oil imports coming from the Middle East, soaring oil prices directly hit market confidence. The KOSPI index fell over 7% intraday, triggering circuit breakers.

● Semiconductor giants Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix saw their stock prices drop nearly 10% and 11.5%, respectively, leading the decline. South Korean ETFs listed in the U.S. plunged nearly 15%. International investors sold a net of 5.4 trillion won (about $47 billion), and the won depreciated against the dollar by 1.34%.

Asia-Pacific Markets: Chain Reaction

● Nikkei 225 down over 3%;

● Australian AX200 down 1.3%;

● As a major oil importer, the entire region is affected by this energy-driven storm.

Chinese A-shares: Over 4,800 stocks decline

● The Chinese stock market also fails to remain independent. By March 3 close, over 4,800 stocks declined, with only about 600 gaining.

● The Shanghai Composite closed at 4,122 points, down 1.43%. During the day, it briefly rebounded on the backs of “Three Oil Giants” and bank stocks but ultimately fell sharply due to widespread declines and lack of profit opportunities.

● The STAR Market index plunged 5.38%, the CSI 2000 index fell 4.16%, and previously hot sectors like AI and semiconductors suffered heavy losses.

● The market shows a typical “80/20 split”—large-cap stocks hold the index steady, while small- and mid-cap stocks bleed.

4. Great Power Choices and the Fog of War

After five days of fighting, the positions and actions of various parties are becoming clearer.

● U.S.: Trump considers deploying warships to escort oil tankers and claims “America’s economic and military strength is unrivaled—and more actions will follow.” However, analysts note that the depletion of interceptors and declining domestic support are becoming concerns for the White House.

● Europe: French President Macron announces the deployment of the Charles de Gaulle aircraft carrier to the Mediterranean but also calls for an immediate halt to military strikes.

● NATO: Secretary General Stoltenberg reiterates that NATO will not participate in actions against Iran.

● Middle Eastern countries: Saudi Arabia’s cabinet declares it will take all necessary measures to defend national security; Iraq’s southern Rumaila oil field announces a production halt; Qatar’s nearly 8,000 foreign tourists are stranded due to airspace closures.

As of press time, Bitcoin is trading around $68,000, down 1.82% in 24 hours. Whether digital gold can truly serve as a safe haven in this turbulent moment remains uncertain.

The only certainty is that as the smoke rises from the Strait of Hormuz and oil tankers ignite in the Persian Gulf, every breath of the global economy will feel the burn. How long will this war last? Will it evolve into another “infinite war,” or will diplomatic efforts find a way out? The answer may lie in the next 48 hours, in each missile that falls from the sky.