Just been watching the US index hovering around 99 lately, and it's been a wild ride with all the geopolitical noise. The dollar's been holding up pretty well in Asian trading despite pulling back from earlier highs, mainly because of this whole Iran situation heating up. Talks fell apart after 21 hours - no deal reached - and now we're seeing increased safe-haven demand pushing into USD.

What's interesting is how the Fed's messaging is playing into this too. That March CPI print came in hotter than people wanted to admit - annual inflation hit 3.3% compared to 2.4% the month before, and monthly we saw 0.9% which is pretty significant. Core CPI also ticked up 0.2% month-over-month. So the US index is getting support not just from geopolitical risk-off, but also from the Fed likely staying higher for longer on these inflation numbers.

Mary Daly from the San Francisco Fed basically confirmed this - if inflation stays elevated, rates are staying put until we get price stability back. Though she did mention rate cuts could happen if the Iran situation calms down quickly and oil prices drop. It's one of those situations where you're watching both the macro data and the headlines simultaneously, because both are moving the needle on where the US index goes from here.