The ongoing legal dispute between the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and Ripple Labs, which has lasted nearly five years, will reach a decisive moment today. Both parties are required to submit a joint report to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit by August 15, a move that could lead to the SEC’s appeal being formally dismissed.
This development will remove the biggest regulatory hurdle facing XRP and pave the way for the approval of a spot ETF.
Legal Grand Finale: The Final Chapter of a Five-Year Standoff
In December 2020, the SEC sued Ripple for raising $1.3 billion through the unregistered sale of XRP, marking the beginning of the longest legal battle in crypto history.
The core dispute of the case is whether XRP is considered a security. In July 2023, Judge Analisa Torres made a key ruling: XRP does not constitute a security in retail sales, but sales to institutional investors are considered securities transactions.
In August 2024, Ripple was fined $125 million. In June of this year, both parties jointly applied to use funds from the escrow account to pay the fine, with $50 million allocated to the SEC and $75 million returned to Ripple.
Lawyer Bill Morgan predicted on social media: "The likelihood of the SEC withdrawing the lawsuit is greater than the likelihood of it not happening, and the timing may be earlier than the August 15 deadline." If the report is successfully submitted today, this legal tug-of-war will officially come to an end.
ETF Probability Leap: From Theoretical Possibility to Inevitable Reality
As legal risks dissipate, the approval probability of the XRP ETF has experienced a dramatic surge. Data from the prediction market Polymarket shows that the probability of approval within 2025 has skyrocketed from 66% (on August 7) to the current 79%-88%.
Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas is more optimistic, maintaining that there is a 95% chance of the XRP ETF being approved within the year, believing that the market has overreacted to SEC Commissioner Crenshaw’s opposing vote.
Crenshaw voted against 13 cryptocurrency ETF proposals, including XRP, on July 29, which briefly caused the Polymarket probability to drop to 62%. However, as the only crypto skeptic within the SEC, her opposition is seen as a procedural statement rather than a substantive obstacle.
Institutional Endorsement: Why XRP ETF Might Dominate Ethereum?
Canary Capital CEO Steven McClurg’s comments have caused a stir in the market: he asserts that the XRP ETF will outperform the Ethereum ETF due to three core advantages.
Disadvantages of No Staking: Unlike Ethereum, which offers 2-3% staking rewards, XRP does not provide native staking. This actually becomes a structural advantage for ETFs—investors holding XRP through ETFs do not face the psychological burden of "opportunity cost."
Dominance in the Payment Sector: XRP’s practical applications in cross-border payments, remittances, and enterprise-level transactions far exceed those of its competitors. Its technology has become an important component of financial infrastructure, naturally appealing to traditional financial institutions.
Fervent community support: XRP holders show a strong sense of loyalty. McClurg predicts that, based on community strength and institutional interest, the first-month inflow of funds for the XRP ETF could reach $5 billion, crushing the performance of the Ethereum ETF during the same period.
Global search data supports this trend: over the past month, Google searches for "XRP ETF" surged by 733%, with the highest demand from investors in North America and Asia.
Timeline Simulation: The Precise Path to Approval
Nasdaq, the New York Stock Exchange, and CBOE have joined forces to establish a universal listing standard for cryptocurrency ETFs, providing a clear regulatory compliance pathway for XRP ETFs.
According to the new regulations, any cryptocurrency that has a regulated U.S. futures market and has been operating for more than six months will meet the requirements for ETF listing. XRP futures have been launched on CME and Coinbase, and are expected to meet this requirement soon.
Nate Geraci, president of the wealth management company The ETF Store, outlined a clear timeline: "When the SEC implements these standardized frameworks, the floodgates will open." He anticipates that new regulations will be enacted within the next two months, triggering a wave of cryptocurrency ETF listings.
Canary Capital has submitted an application, and McClurg confidently stated: "We fully expect to receive approval by the end of 2025.".
Price Impact: From Realistic Goals to Wild Predictions
The clarification of laws and expectations for ETF have driven XRP price Recently broke through the psychological barrier of 3 dollars. Technical analysis shows that after breaking the resistance level of 3.38 dollars, the short-term target points to 3.65 dollars (close to the historical high of 2018).
The mid-term forecast is more optimistic: if the ETF is approved and attracts the expected $5 billion in inflows in the first month, a conservative model (Gemini AI’s 10-15 times multiplier) shows that the XRP price will reach $3.99-$4.41; aggressive predictions (272 times multiplier) even point to $26.
Most analysts agree that a reasonable target range by the end of 2025 is between 5 and 5.50 dollars. A report released by Futu Securities on August 14 stated: "Breaking through 5.50 dollars depends on the actual capital inflow intensity of the ETF and the increased penetration of Ripple’s ODL solution in financial institutions."
Remaining Risk: An Unignorable Alarm Signal
Even in an optimistic atmosphere, risks still exist. Ripple regularly unlocks XRP (such as unlocking 500 million in January 2025), which may create continuous selling pressure.
Global cryptocurrency regulatory policies still have uncertainties. Although the internal opposition within the SEC is at a disadvantage, it may delay the process. In addition, Bitcoin price Macroeconomic factors such as volatility and the shift in Federal Reserve policies will also significantly affect the flow of funds.
The most realistic challenge is that the circulating supply of XRP is as high as 58.3 billion coins. To achieve a three-digit price, it would require surpassing the total market capitalization of the entire cryptocurrency market, which is nearly impossible in the medium term. Mainstream institutions for 2028. Price Prediction Remains in the range of 12.5-30 dollars.
Future Outlook
Market attention is focused on New York. With the submission of the joint report by the SEC and Ripple, XRP’s identification as a "non-security" will receive final judicial endorsement. Once this regulatory gate is opened, ETF applications prepared by institutions such as BlackRock and Fidelity will flood in like a tide.
Bloomberg Terminal data shows that over $230 million has been allocated to XRP through the futures market in the first two weeks of August, setting a record for the highest monthly total in 2025. An internal memorandum from the SEC’s Trading and Markets division indicates that if today’s legal proceedings conclude smoothly, the first batch of XRP spot ETFs could be approved as early as late September.
