Weekly Report Date: October 27, 2025
Important Notice: The views and information provided are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice for any individual.
Strategy Recommendation: Bullish Calendar Spread on BTC
Start trading options: https://www.gate.com/options/BTC_USDT
Gate Options Underlying Asset Performance Review
| Token | Weekly Change | Last Week’s Turnover (Oct 14–Oct 20) | This Week’s Turnover (Oct 21–Oct 27) | Volume Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | 6.70% | $512.3 B | $416.6 B | -18.70% |
| ETH | 6.60% | $332 B | $252 B | -24.00% |
| ADA | 6.10% | $9.3 B | $6.2 B | -33.00% |
| DOGE | 7.60% | $22.5B | $13.7B | -39.10% |
| LTC | 8.21% | $6.4 B | $4.2 B | -34% |
| SOL | 10.20% | $64.5 B | $42 B | -34.80% |
| TON | 2.83% | $1.29 B | $1.01 B | -21.70% |
| XRP | 10.65% | $43.8B | $29.8B | -31.90% |
The 7-day average spot trading volume across the market has declined rapidly for two consecutive weeks.
Bitcoin (BTC) Options Market Summary
Over the past week (Oct 21–Oct 27), the crypto market rebounded overall, driven by easing macro policy expectations and improving risk sentiment. The latest September CPI showed a year-over-year increase of 3.0% (below the expected 3.1%), and core inflation rose just 0.2% month-over-month, indicating continued relief in inflationary pressure. The current probability of a rate cut stands at 96.7%, with expectations for lower interest rates heating up further. The market generally anticipates a more accommodative financial environment ahead. Meanwhile, signals of easing trade tensions among major economies have reduced demand for safe-haven assets, leading to a broad recovery in risk assets.
BTC spot performance: The price fluctuated between $108,000 and $115,000 over the past week. While there was a recovery trend, no strong breakout occurred, and the market remains in a consolidation phase.
Options market: The latest published BTC implied volatility (IV) is 42.07%, a noticeable drop from last week, indicating a more stable market sentiment and expectations for reduced future price swings.
The IV spread between near-term and long-term options has returned to more rational levels, suggesting the market is taking a more measured view of short-term volatility.
In block trading, the most popular strategy this week was the bullish calendar spread, accounting for 24.7% of total volume. This reflects investors positioning for upside in the longer term at a lower cost. The largest block trade this week involved 1,800 contracts: buying BTC-270326-180000-C and selling BTC-261225-140000-C in a bullish calendar spread.
BTC options 25-Delta Skew remained negative throughout the week, indicating persistent defensive sentiment against downside risk. The skew term structure flattened, reflecting increased hedging demand for short-term rebounds. Additionally, implied volatility for puts was at one point about 13 vol higher than calls, but later narrowed to around 2 vol, suggesting bearish sentiment has eased significantly.
Overall, long-term BTC options continue to show a bearish bias, with institutional investors favoring ongoing risk hedging rather than betting on sharp price rallies. The market remains cautious about medium- to long-term trends.
Realized volatility for Bitcoin (BTC) has dropped to around 40, and VRP (IV−RV) has narrowed to -2.46 vol, a clear normalization from last week’s panic-driven -7.38 vol. Currently, overall implied volatility (IV) is still lower than realized volatility (RV), meaning VRP remains negative. In this scenario, the market is underpricing future volatility, making long volatility strategies such as Long Straddle, Long Calendar Spread, or other positive Vega structures worth considering.
Ethereum (ETH) Options Market Summary
ETH traded in a range between $3,600 and $4,300 this week, forming a consolidation pattern. Early in the week, bearish momentum led to multiple tests of the lower boundary near $3,600, but each time support held, indicating resilient short-term buying interest. Later, as macro risk sentiment improved, ETH surged quickly over the weekend, briefly approaching the $4,300 region. However, significant selling pressure remains near the upper boundary at $4,300–$4,350, and whether ETH can break through will depend on higher trading volume and further confirmation of market momentum.
Overall, ETH is currently in a "consolidation + attempted rebound" phase. Short-term traders should closely watch support at $3,600 and resistance in the $4,300–$4,350 range.
Options market: According to the latest public data, ETH implied volatility (IV) is around 69.08%, a sharp decline from previous levels, reflecting stabilized market sentiment and tempered expectations for major price swings ahead.
The IV spread between near-term and long-term options has returned to more rational levels, indicating a more measured outlook on short-term volatility.
In block trading, the most popular strategy this week was buying call options, accounting for 51.5% of total volume. The largest block trade involved 10,000 contracts of ETH-311025-4200-C.
ETH options 25-Delta Skew steepened noticeably midweek, reflecting increased hedging demand against short-term downside risk. By the weekend, it flattened, showing that market sentiment became more moderate as rebound expectations grew. During this period, implied volatility for puts was at one point about 15 vol higher than calls, but later converged to nearly 0 vol, indicating a significant easing of bearish sentiment.
Looking at the term structure, long-dated ETH options are priced optimistically. Contracts expiring in 2026 continue to show a premium on the bullish side, suggesting the market maintains an upward bias for the medium to long term.
Realized volatility for Ethereum (ETH) has decreased to around 58, while VRP (IV−RV) has risen to 9.72 vol, indicating that short-term implied volatility has increased amid a resurgence in risk appetite. Currently, implied volatility (IV) is higher than realized volatility (RV), meaning the market is overpricing future volatility. In this environment, volatility-selling strategies are relatively advantageous, such as earning Theta by selling options or taking short Vega positions.
| Indicator | Mild | Significant | Severe | Trading Advice |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VRP (IV−RV) | >5 vol | >10 vol | >15 vol | Increasing opportunities for sellers |
Policy Events Overview and Market Impact
- Easing US-China Trade Tensions Boosts Market Sentiment
As of October 26, 2025, US-China-Malaysia trade negotiations have alleviated concerns over trade friction, boosting risk appetite and driving Bitcoin’s short-term rebound above $115,000 during the week.
- US September Consumer Price Index (CPI)
The US September CPI came in slightly below expectations, strengthening the market’s anticipation of a 25 basis point Fed rate cut in October and fueling a short-term rally in Bitcoin as capital rotated back into risk assets.
- Federal Reserve October FOMC Meeting
The Federal Reserve’s meeting scheduled for October 28–29 is expected to deliver a 25 basis point rate cut. If realized, this would enhance liquidity and risk appetite, providing a short-term boost for the crypto market.
