On November 7, according to on-chain data, Stable has raised over $860 million since launching the second phase of its pre-deposit campaign. The success of this phase highlights the strong market interest in Stable and its growing influence in the blockchain sector.
Meanwhile, Binance has opened pre-market perpetual contracts for STABLEUSDT, pricing the token at $0.055 USDT, which corresponds to a fully diluted valuation (FDV) of approximately $5.5 billion. With such a large influx of capital and lofty valuations, is this an opportunity or a potential pitfall?
01 Second Phase Pre-Deposit Frenzy: $500 Million Cap Filled Instantly
The second phase of the Stable pre-deposit campaign officially began on November 6, 2025, at 06:00 UTC. The rules required KYC verification and limited each wallet to a single allocation, with a total cap of $500 million.
Astonishingly, the $500 million cap was fully subscribed within just a few hours. Both official and on-chain data confirmed the rapid sell-out, demonstrating the market’s intense enthusiasm for Stable.
Major institutional players continued to dominate this round, with around 194 wallets successfully participating.
There was a minor hiccup during the event: over 60 wallets submitted incorrect addresses, resulting in approximately $2.34 million in funds being deemed invalid. The team extended the processing window to address these issues.
02 Pre-Market Trading Goes Live, FDV Hits $5.5 Billion
While the pre-deposit campaign was underway, Binance launched the STABLEUSDT pre-market perpetual contract at 04:00 UTC on November 6, offering up to 5x leverage and a fixed funding rate of +0.005%.
Following the launch, STABLE traded within a 24-hour price range of $0.04294–$0.06006 USDT.
At the time of reporting, the price was approximately $0.055 USDT, corresponding to a fully diluted valuation (FDV) of about $5.5 billion.
This valuation immediately sparked widespread discussion in the market. Based on a fixed total supply of 10 billion tokens, even at the intraday low of $0.0445 USDT, the FDV would still be around $4.45 billion—a fluctuation of roughly ±18%.
03 Deep Dive: Is a $5.5 Billion FDV Justified?
Funding Multiple Comparison
Stable’s FDV is about 179 times its disclosed fundraising amount. This ratio is slightly lower than Plasma’s peak of 280x but higher than the average for most L1 public chains (less than 100x).
Peer Project Comparison
Compared to other stablecoin/payment-focused public chains launching in 2025, Stable’s valuation is in the upper-middle range.
- Plasma: Launched in September, raised $37.3 million in its public sale, and debuted with an FDV as high as $10.4 billion. However, after two months, it retraced 74%, with the current FDV at just $2.7 billion.
- Tempo: Has not yet launched a token, but the company is valued at $5 billion, backed by the Stripe payments ecosystem.
- Arc: The native chain for USDC, focused on enterprise settlements, has not yet launched a token.
TVL-to-Valuation Ratio
Plasma launched with a TVL of $2 billion, and its current FDV/TVL ratio is about 13.5.
Stable has already collected $1.325 billion in pre-deposits. If all these funds go live on mainnet, the potential FDV/TVL ratio would be about 4.2, which is more favorable than Plasma’s current level.
Market Size Support
Looking at market capacity, USDT has a market cap of $183 billion, accounting for 58% of the stablecoin market, with Tether’s annual profit estimated at $15 billion.
If Stable can capture just 5% of USDT’s on-chain volume, it could generate about $750 million in annual fee revenue, supporting a $5.5 billion FDV (roughly a 7.3x revenue multiple)—a ratio that falls within a reasonable range.
04 Opportunities and Risks: What Should Investors Watch?
Potential Opportunities
- Clear demand for USDT payment chains: Stablecoins see monthly transaction volumes of $77.2 billion, with an annual growth rate of 70%.
- Strong ecosystem partners: Backing from partners like PayPal, LayerZero, and Pendle can drive rapid user adoption and provide initial growth momentum.
- Tether native support: As the native gas fee chain for USDT, Stable enjoys inherent ecosystem advantages.
Risks Not to Overlook
- Delivery risk: If mainnet and DeFi integrations are delayed, pre-deposit funds could remain idle, and the valuation bubble may burst.
- Compliance risk: Uncertainties around Tether’s audits and legislation (such as the GENIUS Act) could impact USDT’s on-chain role.
- Concentration risk: Early rounds are dominated by institutions, and with no disclosed vesting schedule, there are concerns about sell pressure and centralized influence.
- Lessons from the past: Plasma’s FDV dropped 74% just two months after launch, showing that early payment chain bubbles can quickly deflate.
05 Pre-Market Trading Strategies: How Can Retail Investors Participate?
For investors looking to trade Stable in the pre-market, Gate has also launched pre-market trading for STABLE perpetual contracts, supporting 1–10x leverage.
Pre-market trading allows users to buy and sell new tokens in a dedicated market before they are officially listed on spot exchanges.
This mechanism helps investors reduce competition and enter early to capture initial value.
Investors should allocate funds rationally, avoid going all-in, set reasonable target prices, and be cautious about chasing price spikes.
Outlook
Judging by market sentiment, most highly engaged posts are optimistic, believing that Tether’s backing is enough to support a high valuation. However, some retail community members have criticized the first phase for being dominated by "whales," raising concerns about centralization.
Market analyst Jainam Mehta observed an interesting phenomenon: "As volatility rises and sentiment heats up, this setup may create contrarian opportunities for short-term traders when resistance levels are breached."
Ultimately, the decisive factor will be whether the $500 million from the second phase and the cumulative $1.325 billion in funds can be successfully converted into mainnet TVL and on-chain transaction volume as planned. If Stable can reach Plasma’s early $2 billion TVL milestone, its FDV could be sustained—or even expand further.
