ARK Invest founder Cathie Wood made a bold prediction during a recent "Bitcoin Brainstorm" podcast: the U.S. government may soon move beyond simply holding confiscated cryptocurrencies and start directly buying Bitcoin on the open market to build up its national strategic reserves.
According to the current U.S. government plan, the ultimate goal for its strategic Bitcoin reserves is to hold 1 million BTC. As of January 9, 2026, the Bitcoin price on Gate, one of the world’s leading digital asset exchanges, was approximately $90,104.00.
01 Reserve Strategy
The U.S. government’s strategic interest in Bitcoin has been formally established through executive orders. At the start of its second term, the Trump administration signed an order setting up a national Bitcoin reserve mechanism, often likened to a digital-era "Fort Knox gold reserve."
However, as Wood observes, there’s a key feature to this reserve: all Bitcoin held so far has come from assets seized in law enforcement actions, not from proactive market purchases.
Currently, the U.S. Treasury holds about 198,000 Bitcoin confiscated from criminals, making it one of the largest publicly held crypto asset reserves by any government in history.
02 Core Prediction
Wood’s central thesis points to a fundamental contradiction. She notes that the government appears hesitant to use public funds to buy Bitcoin directly, yet the initial reserve target is 1 million BTC—far above the current holdings.
"I think they’ll eventually start buying in," Wood stated clearly on the podcast. She believes that shifting from passive receipt to active acquisition is an inevitable direction for reserve policy.
Beyond direct purchases, Wood also predicts the Trump administration will push for a "de minimis exemption" tax policy—allowing small crypto transactions to be exempt from capital gains tax. This would further lower the barrier for everyday Americans to participate in the crypto market.
03 Political Momentum
Wood argues that the Trump administration is unlikely to ease its support for crypto in 2026, the midpoint of its second term, and gives several reasons.
First, the Trump family’s own interests in the crypto sector continue to grow. Second, the previous U.S. presidential election saw the crypto industry emerge as a significant political force—Wood herself openly supported Trump and contributed to his re-election efforts.
"Most importantly, he doesn’t want to be a lame-duck president," Wood analyzed. "He wants one or two more productive years in office, and I think he sees crypto as a path to the future."
04 Policy Framework
Cryptocurrency has become a major focus for the Trump administration. The president has signed two executive orders to establish a crypto reserve and formed a task force led by special advisor David Sacks.
The Sacks-led group issued a series of policy recommendations in July 2025, including expanding the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s authority to regulate spot trading of non-security digital assets.
Importantly, the task force has asked the Treasury and Commerce Departments to explore ways to increase Bitcoin holdings without impacting the budget, though no purchases have been made so far.
05 Market and Institutional Outlook
Looking back at 2025, Wood and ARK’s Lorenzo Valente note that the crypto market experienced volatility and flash crashes. Valente adds that new entrants are taking a more serious approach, and their long-term strategies may help stabilize the market.
Wood takes a measured view of institutional Bitcoin adoption in 2025, considering the possibility of a four-year cycle. She offers a key metric: "If we can get through this year and this cycle, and Bitcoin’s drawdown stays above 30%—rather than 50%, 60%, or even 70%—that’s a win."
This focus on market resilience may be the backdrop for her prediction that the government will take a more active stance.
06 State-Level Initiatives and National Impact
Federal moves aren’t happening in isolation. States like Florida and Texas are independently advancing legislation to build their own crypto reserves, reflecting broad recognition of the strategic value of this asset class.
Once direct national purchases begin, the impact will be profound. It would not only elevate Bitcoin to the status of a national strategic asset, but also introduce an unprecedented sovereign-backed buyer to the market.
Gate exchange data shows that as of January 9, 2026, Bitcoin traded near $90,104.00. If the government does start buying, the timing, scale, and strategy of its entry will become key factors shaping the global crypto market.
Bitcoin’s Scarcity and Strategic Value
Compared to traditional strategic assets like gold, one of Bitcoin’s defining features is its absolute scarcity. Wood has emphasized this repeatedly: "The difference between gold and Bitcoin is, when gold’s price rises, production increases and supply grows faster. That doesn’t happen with Bitcoin."
With a fixed supply of 21 million coins, Bitcoin is, in theory, even more resistant to inflation than any sovereign currency—a major reason why nations are considering adding it to their reserve portfolios.
Future Outlook
In the legislative halls of Florida and Texas, lawmakers are debating how to add digital assets to state treasuries. Meanwhile, at ARK Invest’s New York office, Cathie Wood watches Bitcoin’s price chart break through the $90,000 mark on her computer screen.
She sees more than just a price movement—she sees a clear trajectory stretching from Wall Street to Pennsylvania Avenue in Washington. The next batch of Bitcoin in the national reserve may no longer bear the label "confiscated," but instead, "purchased."
