After the Bitcoin price touched a low of around $60,000, the market did not experience a wave of panic selling. On the contrary, data shows that the proportion of long-term holders is quietly increasing, indicating a profound shift in the market’s underlying structure.
Mark Yusko, founder of Morgan Creek Capital Management, recently stated that every bull market needs a "narrative." However, the narrative that once fueled the market’s surge now appears to be changing.
Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz recently made a bold statement at the CNBC Digital Finance Forum: the "speculative era" of cryptocurrencies—driven by high leverage and outsized return expectations—may be coming to an end.
Market Turning Point
The crypto market didn’t get off to the strong start many expected in early 2026. Instead, it experienced a significant cooldown. Since the beginning of the year, Bitcoin’s price has dropped more than 21%, falling nearly 50% from its all-time high set in October 2025. This decline stands apart from previous downturns. Novogratz points out that the 2022 FTX collapse triggered a 22% single-day plunge in Bitcoin—a clear "crisis of trust." This time, however, "there’s no concrete evidence"; the market is shifting quietly without a single "black swan" event.
Behind this shift in sentiment was a dramatic deleveraging event in October 2025. Over 1.6 million traders lost a total of $19.37 billion in leveraged positions within 24 hours. This purge "wiped out a large number of retail investors and market makers," putting sustained pressure on prices and shaking the foundation of confidence in chasing short-term windfalls.
Core Perspective
From Novogratz’s viewpoint, the current market adjustment isn’t a coincidence—it’s an inevitable reflection of a structural transformation in the industry. As more risk-averse institutional investors enter the crypto space, the entire sector’s investment logic is undergoing a fundamental change.
Retail investors typically enter crypto markets seeking outsized returns—30x, 8x, even 10x. Institutional investors, by contrast, have much more realistic expectations, aiming for more stable and sustainable returns.
"The core of crypto is narrative, it’s about the story," Novogratz emphasized at the forum. "These stories take time to build, and time to attract participation." After the market flushes out many high-leverage speculators, the old narratives can’t simply bounce back. The industry will gradually shift from speculative stories of high-multiplier returns to applications based on blockchain infrastructure, such as real-world assets and tokenized equities.
Industry Transformation
The path of transformation for the crypto industry is becoming clearer: moving from purely speculative assets toward financial infrastructure with real utility. Novogratz predicts that the industry will "use the same channels—the crypto channels—to bring banking and financial services to the world." This means cryptocurrencies will no longer be just speculative tools, but will serve as bridges connecting traditional finance and emerging markets. Assets will increasingly be tied to "real-world assets," though returns will decrease accordingly.
New asset classes like tokenized equities will offer "different return profiles," giving investors a risk-reward choice between traditional stocks and pure cryptocurrencies. Throughout this transformation, a robust regulatory framework is essential. Novogratz is optimistic about the passage of the CLARITY Act, believing it’s crucial for restoring confidence in the crypto market.
Institutional Perspective
Echoing Novogratz’s view, Wall Street research firm Bernstein offers another angle. They argue that the current Bitcoin market pullback is a "crisis of confidence, not a structural issue."
Bernstein notes that this correction differs significantly from previous bear markets: there have been no major bankruptcies, no hidden leverage, and no systemic collapses. This supports their assessment of a "confidence crisis." The firm maintains its price prediction for Bitcoin to reach $150,000 by the end of 2026, implying nearly 119% upside from current levels.
Bernstein highlights a new feature of the current cycle—"institutional synergy." This is reflected in a pro-Bitcoin policy environment, widespread adoption of spot Bitcoin ETFs, a growing trend of corporate treasury allocations to Bitcoin, and continued participation from major asset managers. Statistics show that spot Bitcoin ETFs have attracted over $21 billion in inflows, and corporate Bitcoin holdings now exceed 1.1 million BTC.
Market Data
According to Gate market data, as of February 11, 2026, Bitcoin’s price stood at $67,677.4, with a 24-hour trading volume of $861.42M. Bitcoin’s market capitalization was $1.38T, accounting for 55.93% of the market. In terms of price movement, Bitcoin fell 3.00% over the past 24 hours, dropped 11.59% over the past 7 days, and declined 23.78% over the past 30 days.
From a technical analysis perspective, Bitcoin is currently testing the key $73,375 support level. If this support fails, the next major support zone lies between $62,000 and $65,000.
Gate’s data analysis and forecasting models project Bitcoin’s average price in 2026 at $69,065, with a potential range between $61,467.85 and $98,762.95. Looking further ahead to 2031, Bitcoin’s price could reach $148,721.19, representing an 86.00% potential return from current levels. These forecasts are based on historical data and market trend analysis; actual performance may vary due to multiple factors.
Outlook
The crypto market is at a critical turning point. On one hand, voices like Novogratz’s suggest the industry is leaving behind the high-leverage, high-return "speculative era." On the other, institutions like Bernstein see new opportunities emerging amid structural change. These seemingly contradictory views highlight the market’s complexity: the decline of speculative elements and the rise of practical value may be happening simultaneously.
Market maturation won’t happen overnight. Some traders will always speculate—this is a fundamental feature of financial markets. Overall, though, the industry is increasingly leveraging blockchain technology to "bring banking and financial services to the world." For investors, this means expectations need to be recalibrated. The era of chasing 30x returns may be ending, but more sustainable opportunities—rooted in real-world applications and asset backing—are emerging.
A clearer regulatory environment will be a key factor in this transformation. Novogratz revealed he recently spoke with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, and both parties are interested in advancing the CLARITY Act. He believes the bill is not only a practical necessity but could also "revitalize" the crypto market.
On February 11, 2026, Bitcoin was priced at $67,677.4, down 3.00% from the previous day. The market still appears to be digesting Novogratz’s argument that the "speculative era is ending." Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s network hash rate has hit a record high, yet the price remains flat. Some analysts interpret this divergence as a positive signal—hash rate increases typically lag price action, with prices often following several weeks or months later.
According to discussions in the Gate community, current market sentiment is in a "confused middle ground": retail investors remain cautious, institutions are more selective, and leverage levels are well below the frenzy of previous peaks. This environment often favors strategic accumulation over emotional trading. Bitcoin is evolving from a pure cryptocurrency into a "macro financial asset," with its price increasingly tracking traditional macroeconomic cycles.
