Since Bitcoin’s sharp drop to $59,930 in early February 2026, market sentiment has remained caught between "neutral" and "extreme fear." According to Gate market data, as of February 11, 2026, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) stands at $66,840.3, reflecting a slight 3.41% decline over 24 hours and a more substantial 23.78% drop on a monthly basis.
In response to this deeper-than-expected correction, leading research firm Kaiko Research released a major report this week. Its central thesis: Bitcoin’s fall to $60,000 may signal that this bear market is already halfway through. This conclusion quickly became a focal point of discussion in the global crypto community. In this article, Gate will unpack Kaiko’s reasoning using the latest on-chain data, macro trading environment analysis, and Gate’s own ecosystem developments, providing a rational outlook for the market ahead.
The Technical Definition of "Halfway Through" a Bear Market: From Halving Euphoria to Deleveraging Stability
Kaiko Research’s report points out that after Bitcoin hit its all-time high of $126,080 in October 2025, the maximum drawdown by early February 2026 had reached 52%. While a 52% correction is alarming in absolute terms, Kaiko’s analysis of the past 12 years shows that typical Bitcoin bear markets see average drawdowns of 60% to 68%.
Based on this statistical pattern, Kaiko believes that while the current $60,000 level may not be the ultimate bottom, it represents a highly symbolic "midpoint." Kaiko further notes that a full Bitcoin bear market cycle generally consists of three phases:
- Post-halving euphoria: Prices peak as retail FOMO reaches its height (Q4 2025).
- Trend reversal and deleveraging: Prices break through key support levels, long positions are liquidated frequently, and leverage drops sharply (Q1 2026).
- Long-term accumulation: Prices fluctuate in a broad low range, high-cost investors gradually rotate out, laying the groundwork for the next bull market.
Historical chart of Bitcoin halving cycles. Source: Kaiko Research
Kaiko concludes that the market is now at the end of phase two and about to transition into phase three. This transition typically lasts around 12 months, which means that for at least the next half year, the market’s main theme will be "bottom formation" rather than "reversal."
Dual On-Chain and Off-Chain Evidence: Shrinking Trading Volume and Plunging Open Interest
To support the "halfway through the bear market" thesis, Kaiko Research presented two weighty quantitative indicators, which we have cross-verified:
Spot Market Liquidity Dries Up
Kaiko’s data shows that the combined spot trading volume of the top 10 centralized exchanges (CEXs) dropped from $1 trillion in October 2025 to $700 billion in November 2025—a 30% decline. Despite Gate’s countertrend growth in total trading volume, driven by innovative products like Gate TradFi, surpassing $33 billion, speculative capital is clearly exiting the broader market.
Open interest in Bitcoin and Ethereum futures, top ten exchanges. Data source: Kaiko Research
Large-Scale Deleveraging in Derivatives
Another key indicator comes from the futures market. Combined open interest (OI) for Bitcoin and Ethereum futures has fallen from a peak of $29 billion to $25 billion—a sharp 14% drop in just one week. Since early February, Gate has observed a rapid acceleration in market-wide leverage liquidation, closely matching Kaiko’s "midpoint deleveraging" characteristic of bear markets.
Market Debate: Is $60,000 the "Bottom" or Just a "Midpoint"?
While Kaiko prefers the term "midpoint" over "bottom" to describe the current price level, debate continues over whether $60,000 marks the true bottom.
Bullish View (Local Bottom)
Traders like MN Capital founder Michaël van de Poppe argue that $60,000 represents a local bottom. Their reasoning: Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) fell to its lowest level since 2018 and 2020 when it touched $59,930, a sentiment low that often signals the exhaustion of short-term selling.
Cautious View (Further Downside Possible)
Kaiko itself remains cautious. The firm notes that if historical drawdown models (60%-68%) hold, Bitcoin’s cycle bottom could lie in the $40,000 to $50,000 range. Nansen researcher Nicolai Sondergaard also told Cointelegraph that it’s too early to say the market has fully returned to the four-year cycle, and volatility is likely to remain high.
Gate’s Analysis
Gate’s current data shows Bitcoin’s 200-week moving average (200W MA) is around $68,400. After briefly dipping below this level on February 4, the price quickly rebounded, demonstrating strong technical resilience. The $61,467.85 mark, Gate’s lowest projected value in its 2026 price prediction model, now serves as a critical psychological support for bulls.
Long-Term Outlook and the Evolution of the Gate Ecosystem
Even with bearish sentiment dominating the spot market, both Kaiko and Gate define the current phase not as a "recession," but as a period of "revaluation."
Underlying Value Remains Solid
A recent JPMorgan report notes that Bitcoin’s volatility ratio to gold has dropped to a historic low of 1.5, with theoretical long-term fair value pointing to $266,000. While that target is unrealistic for this year, it reflects mainstream finance’s growing recognition of Bitcoin as a store of value.
Gate’s Counter-Cyclical Strategy
Despite market pressure in February 2026, Gate has not slowed its pace of innovation. Gate TradFi’s cumulative trading volume has surpassed $33 billion, with single-day highs over $6 billion. Multi-asset CFD trading—including gold, US stocks, and forex—is becoming a new tool for users to hedge against single-crypto risk. Additionally, the tokenized treasury (RWA) market has exceeded $10 billion in size, and Gate sees RWA as the next major growth driver for on-chain finance.
Price Analysis and Forecast
According to the latest Gate market data:
Bitcoin (BTC) real-time data:
- Spot price: $66,840.3 (24h change: -3.41%)
- 24h trading volume: $913.27M
- Market cap: $1.38T (market dominance: 55.93%)
- All-time high: $126,080 / All-time low: $67.81
Gate’s 2026 price forecast:
- Lowest expected: $61,467.85
- Highest expected: $98,762.95
- Annual average: $69,065
Ethereum (ETH) real-time data:
- Spot price: $1,946.71 (24h change: -3.73%)
- Market sentiment: Bullish
- Annual forecast average: $2,095.27
Conclusion
Kaiko Research’s assertion that "Bitcoin’s drop to $60,000 may mark the halfway point of the bear market" is not simply a pessimistic outlook, but a data-driven wake-up call. It reminds the market that, at this stage, preserving capital and allocating to anti-cyclical assets is far more important than blindly trying to call the bottom.
For investors, the focus now should not be on predicting "the exact lowest point," but on using tools like Gate TradFi, RWA, and dollar-cost averaging to build long-term positions gradually within the $60,000 to $70,000 range. The bear market may be halfway through, and while the dawn might still be below the horizon, for those who plan rationally, the time to prepare has already begun.
