On February 14, 2026, Gate market data shows that after a month-long deep correction, Ethereum (ETH) is showing signs of recovery. As of this writing, ETH is trading at $2,055.21, up +5.97% over the past 24 hours, with market sentiment shifting from fear to neutral. However, behind this rebound, a fierce battle is unfolding between "smart money" and short-term speculators. With whales accumulating $2 billion worth of ETH, the question of whether the Ethereum price can attempt a 10% rebound has become the hottest topic in the market.
Whales Scoop Up $2 Billion: Bullish Divergence Emerges
On-chain data reveals the driving force behind this rebound. According to analytics platform Santiment, since February 9, whale addresses holding between 1 million and 10 million ETH have entered an aggressive accumulation phase. Their total holdings surged from about 5.17 million ETH to nearly 6.27 million ETH in just a few days—an increase of over 1.1 million ETH. This massive $2 billion buying spree has directly offset some of the selling pressure, providing a solid foundation for ETH to stabilize above the $1,900 mark.
Ethereum whales, source: Santiment
This behavior has created a classic bullish divergence on the technical charts. Between January 25 and February 12, while the ETH price repeatedly hit new lows, the 12-hour Relative Strength Index (RSI) posted higher lows. This "price drops, indicator doesn’t" pattern typically signals that bearish momentum is waning and that smart, long-term capital is accumulating at lower prices.
Bullish divergence, source: TradingView
Roadblocks to the Rebound: Short-Term Holders and a Wave of Shorts
While whale accumulation has injected much-needed confidence into the market, whether Ethereum can stage a 10% rebound still faces significant resistance. In stark contrast to the whales’ conviction, short-term holders are rushing for the exits. Data shows that the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) for addresses holding ETH for 7 to 30 days has skyrocketed. Since February 9, the number of tokens spent by these addresses has soared from about 14,000 to nearly 107,000—an increase of over 660%. This indicates that short-term traders are selling aggressively, locking in profits and capping every upward move.
ETH tokens, source: Santiment
Extreme data from the derivatives market further intensifies this tug-of-war. According to Coinglass, current short positions total $3.06 billion, while leveraged longs stand at just $755 million, with shorts accounting for nearly 80% of the market. Although this extreme imbalance lays the groundwork for a potential "short squeeze" (where forced short covering drives prices sharply higher), it also reflects the prevailing pessimism among mainstream traders.
Shorts dominate the market, source: Coinglass
Additionally, shifts in macro capital flows are impacting the market. While whales are buying, institutional money is flowing out. The US spot ETH ETF has seen net outflows exceeding $242 million recently, indicating that some traditional institutions are seeking safety amid interest rate uncertainty.
Key Price Levels: Is a 10% Rebound Possible?
Based on Gate market data (as of February 14, 2026) and on-chain cost basis models, ETH is currently trading within an extremely narrow range. For investors to see the anticipated 10% rebound, bulls must break through two critical price levels.
First Resistance: $2,010 - $2,070
This is the first major hurdle for ETH in the short term. On-chain data shows that between $1,980 and $2,020, about 1.58% of the circulating supply was heavily accumulated. These former buyers now represent potential sellers, eager to exit once they break even. Today’s 24-hour high has reached $2,072.97, indicating that bulls are testing this resistance zone. If the 12-hour candlestick closes firmly above $2,072.97, it would signal a successful breakout.
Second Target: $2,140 - $2,150
This is the key target for a 10% rebound. From the current price of $2,055, a 10% increase would reach around $2,260, but technically, $2,140 is a more critical neckline. This level is not only a previous high-volume trading zone but also where many short positions have stop-loss orders clustered. A breakout here could trigger a cascade of liquidations, forcing shorts to cover and accelerating the move toward the 10% rebound target.
Lifeline Support: $1,890 - $1,900
On the downside, $1,890 is the bulls’ last line of defense. This is the foundation of the recent bullish divergence structure and coincides with several on-chain cost basis peaks. Gate market data shows the 24-hour low at $1,924.6, currently keeping ETH safely above this danger zone. If the price decisively breaks below $1,890, the bullish case driven by whale accumulation would be undermined, and the market could retest $1,740 or even the long-term support at $1,400 previously forecast by Standard Chartered.
Ethereum Ecosystem and Future Outlook
Despite intense short-term battles, Ethereum’s fundamentals continue to evolve. Although Layer 2 active addresses have declined, mainnet activity has increased by 41% year-over-year. Vitalik Buterin’s recent reassessment of the L2 roadmap signals a shift in the ecosystem’s focus—from pure scaling to specialization and interoperability—which bodes well for ETH’s long-term value capture.
Looking ahead, Gate data suggests that the market expects ETH’s average price in 2026 to fluctuate around $1,936.98, with a potential peak reaching $2,324.37. This means that even if a rapid 10% breakout doesn’t materialize in the short term, the strong support from whale cost bases limits the downside risk for ETH.
Conclusion
In summary, as whales accumulate $2 billion worth of ETH, can Ethereum attempt a 10% rebound? The answer: It’s possible, but the path is far from straightforward. Whale buying has established a solid floor at $1,890, while the massive short interest acts as a powder keg for a potential explosive rally. In the near term, ETH must churn between $2,010 and $2,070 to absorb short-term selling pressure. For investors, it’s prudent to treat the market as range-bound until ETH decisively holds above $2,070. Once a breakout with strong volume occurs, the 10% rebound target could be quickly achieved. Stay tuned to Gate market updates to stay ahead of the curve.
