At the beginning of March 2026, Bitcoin broke through the critical psychological barrier of $70,000 amid a confluence of factors, drawing widespread market attention. According to the latest monitoring by on-chain analytics platform Glassnode, selling pressure is easing, with the 14-day net flow indicator turning positive for the first time, signaling early signs of renewed accumulation. However, this breakout has not led to unanimous optimism—Glassnode also warns that the current ETF demand structure remains fragile, and the market is more likely in a "defensive consolidation" phase rather than at the start of a new expansion trend. This article analyzes the data realities, market divergences, and future evolution paths at this key juncture, based on on-chain reserve data and market sentiment indicators.
Selling Pressure Eases as Price Breaks Through Key Level
As of March 6, 2026, according to Gate market data, Bitcoin has held above $70,000, reaching as high as the $73,500 area. This price action comes against the backdrop of a significant improvement in on-chain selling pressure indicators. Glassnode’s tracked 14-day net flow metric—which measures the net flow of Bitcoin into exchanges—has turned positive for the first time after months of negative readings, indicating that selling pressure flowing into trading platforms is subsiding.
At the same time, net position changes among long-term holders (LTHs) show a similar trend. After a period of sustained net selling since Q4 2025, LTHs are now easing their selling activity. Analysts note that as prices stabilized around the $60,000 range, even the most steadfast holders completed a round of profit-taking or panic selling, leading to a more stable market structure.
From Liquidation Lows to Cautious Recovery
To understand the current on-chain signals, it’s important to look back at the market’s evolution over the past three months. At the end of 2025, Bitcoin underwent a dramatic deleveraging process. As prices pulled back from all-time highs, the market experienced large-scale liquidations, with open interest in the options market plunging by more than 45%—a record-setting reset of positions. This process cleared out a significant amount of structural hedges, providing a "cleaner" base for subsequent market activity.
By January 2026, the market began to bottom out in the $80,000 to $90,000 range. At that time, profit-taking pressure cooled markedly, with Realized Profit (7-day SMA) dropping sharply from over $1 billion per day during the Q4 peak to around $180 million. This shift set the stage for the rebound from late February into early March. At the end of February, as geopolitical tensions escalated, Bitcoin unexpectedly displayed safe-haven characteristics, attracting capital inflows. Moving into March, spot Bitcoin ETF inflows accelerated significantly, with more than $1.1 billion flowing in over three days, directly propelling the price above the $70,000 threshold.
Early Signs of Accumulation, but Demand Structure Remains Uncertain
On-chain data reveals several key structural features in the current market:
Diminishing Selling Pressure
The 30-day selling volume from long-term holders has dropped from about 904,000 BTC in November 2025 to roughly 276,000 BTC now—the lowest level since June 2025. This indicates that supply pressure from "diamond hands" has eased considerably. Meanwhile, loss transfers to exchanges by short-term holders have also declined sharply, signaling that the panic selling phase has largely ended.
Early Accumulation Signals
Although overall market sentiment remains cautious, on-chain data shows that accumulation is quietly underway. Whale addresses holding between 10,000 and 100,000 BTC have increased their holdings over the past week, now accounting for 11.32% of circulating supply. Data from CryptoQuant confirms this trend, with balances at addresses associated with long-term holding steadily rising, suggesting that conviction-driven capital is absorbing circulating supply.
Fragility of Demand Structure
Despite the price surge, Glassnode warns that the current demand base is not robust. The short-term holder cost basis model shows that the average cost for new entrants is around $99,100, meaning most recent buyers are still slightly underwater (STH-MVRV at 0.95). Unless the price can consistently hold above this cost basis, demand may wane due to lack of confidence.
Additionally, while corporate treasury demand provides some support, it tends to be intermittent rather than sustained, often concentrating during price pullbacks rather than on upward moves.
| Metric Dimension | Specific Metric | Current Status | Data Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Selling Pressure | LTH 30-day Selling Volume | Down to 276,000 BTC (lowest since June 2025) | CryptoQuant |
| Selling Pressure | 14-day Net Flow Indicator | Positive for the first time, selling pressure easing | Glassnode |
| Accumulation | Whale Address Holdings | 10,000–100,000 BTC addresses increased to 11.32% | Santiment |
| Demand Structure | STH Cost Basis | $99,100, current price below this level | Glassnode |
| Demand Structure | ETF Net Flow | Over $1.1 billion inflow in first three days of March | Coinglass |
Dissecting Market Sentiment
There is a clear divide in how the market interprets Bitcoin’s break above $70,000, with two main camps emerging:
Cautious Optimists: Bottom Confirmed, Trend Brewing
Some Glassnode analysts point out that with LTH selling pressure easing and the options market reset, market structure has improved significantly. This view holds that as long as the price can hold its current range and gradually absorb the heavy supply zone above (around $92,000 to $117,000), Bitcoin could enter a true re-accumulation phase. This camp emphasizes the importance of "early signals," viewing the current moment as a critical window before a trend reversal.
Prudent Skeptics: Relief Rally, Bear Market Not Over
Julio Moreno, Head of Research at CryptoQuant, states clearly that despite the price rebound, Bitcoin remains in a bear market environment. The firm’s Bitcoin Bull Score Index remains at 10 out of 100, indicating that fundamentals and technicals have not yet recovered to bull market levels. They argue that the current rally is more likely a "relief bounce," with strong resistance at the $79,000 and $90,000 zones.
Examining the Narrative’s Validity
Does "Seller Exhaustion" Equal "Buyer Strength"?
This is a crucial distinction. Current on-chain data shows selling pressure is easing, but this only reflects changes on the supply side. For the market to continue higher, it needs sustained expansion on the demand side. While ETF inflows have picked up, their persistence remains to be seen. History shows that rallies driven solely by supply-side improvement, without confirmed net inflows on the demand side, are often short-lived.
How Reliable Are "Early Accumulation" Signals?
Whale accumulation and rising balances at accumulation addresses are indeed positive signs. However, whether these accumulation activities are enough to offset the massive supply overhang above (i.e., selling pressure from early buyers seeking to break even) remains uncertain. Glassnode’s UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) shows that the $92,000 to $117,000 range is crowded with trapped supply, making this area a key test of demand strength.
Industry Impact Analysis
Current on-chain signals have direct implications for the industry in several ways:
Market Structure Optimization
The large-scale deleveraging at the end of 2025 purged excessive leverage and structural hedges, creating a healthier market foundation. Options market gamma positions have shifted to short-term status, meaning that as prices rise, market makers’ hedging activity could provide positive feedback, amplifying upward momentum.
Shifting Patterns of Institutional Participation
The recovery of spot ETF inflows indicates that institutional capital still views Bitcoin as a key asset allocation. Unlike earlier periods of indiscriminate buying, current institutional inflows are more price-sensitive, often occurring during periods of stabilization or pullback. This shift suggests that future market advances are more likely to be stepwise rather than vertical surges.
Advancement of Compliance and Mainstream Adoption
The ongoing (albeit sometimes volatile) inflow of ETF capital, coupled with Bitcoin’s "safe-haven" performance during geopolitical tensions, is steadily cementing its status as a mainstream macro asset. This narrative shift, though gradual, has far-reaching implications for long-term capital allocation decisions.
Multi-Scenario Market Evolution
Based on current data, there are three possible scenarios for the market’s future evolution:
Scenario 1: Trend Confirmation, Entering Re-Accumulation Range
Trigger conditions: Price consistently holds above the short-term holder cost basis ($99,100); ETF inflows remain above $500 million per week; macro geopolitical risks are manageable.
Market performance: Bitcoin enters a new trading range between $80,000 and $100,000, long-term holders resume net accumulation, and market sentiment shifts from defensive to moderate expansion.
Scenario 2: Demand Fails, Double Bottom Test
Trigger conditions: ETF inflows turn negative again; price faces strong selling pressure in the $75,000 to $80,000 range; macro liquidity tightens.
Market performance: The rebound fails, with prices falling back to the $60,000 to $65,000 range in search of support. A new wave of panic selling among short-term holders emerges on-chain.
Scenario 3: Prolonged Sideways, Time as a Factor
Trigger conditions: Buyers and sellers reach a dynamic equilibrium between $65,000 and $80,000; macro factors lack clear direction.
Market performance: The market enters a months-long consolidation phase, digesting overhead supply through time and accumulating enough turnover before choosing a direction. This is the scenario most supported by on-chain data, echoing Glassnode’s "defensive consolidation" description.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s break above $70,000 is the result of easing selling pressure and renewed ETF inflows. On-chain data does show early positive signals of renewed accumulation, with long-term holders sharply reducing sales and whale addresses increasing their holdings. However, it’s important to recognize that the current demand structure remains fragile, and the sustainability of ETF inflows is the key variable determining whether the market can transition from "defensive consolidation" to a "trend expansion" phase.
For investors, the focus at this stage should be on the battle around the short-term holder cost basis (around $99,100) and the ongoing trend of ETF net flows. Until on-chain data confirms a trend reversal, it may be more rational to view the current rally as a cautious rebound following structural optimization. The market is clearing the decks, but a true liftoff still awaits a clear signal from the demand side.
