Bitcoin may fall from 100,000 to 56,000 USD, but there are no signs of panic.

The price of Bitcoin could fall nearly 50% if the downtrend that has persisted over the past month continues, according to a traditional financial analyst.

However, the on-chain analytics company Glassnode believes that the current downtrend of Bitcoin may not be as severe as many investors fear.

Bloomberg analyst Mike McGlone stated in a post on X on Thursday that Bitcoin reaching 100,000 USD may just be “a speed bump heading towards 56,000 USD.”

“Observing the chart shows that Bitcoin returning to the 48-month moving average, currently around $56,000, is completely normal after strong rallies similar to those in 2025,” McGlone stated.

Indicators suggest that Bitcoin may have reached a local bottom

Some important data suggests that the fall to 98,000 USD on November 4 may have marked a short-term bottom. This is also the first time in over four months that Bitcoin has fallen below the psychological threshold of 100,000 USD.

Since then, Bitcoin has recovered slightly, trading around 101,380 USD at the time of writing.

Analysts at XWIN Research Japan stated that the MVRV ratio of Bitcoin — a measure of whether an asset is overvalued — has fallen to levels often associated with past bottom regions.

In the market report released on Wednesday, Glassnode stated that a key indicator shows the recent price fall is just a normal adjustment phase in the current cycle.

“It is important to consider the Relative Unrealized Loss index, which measures the total unrealized losses compared to the market capitalization,” Glassnode stated.

The Bitcoin market reflects the adjustment phases of previous cycles

“Unlike the bear market of 2022–2023, where losses were at an extreme level, the current index at 3.1% shows pressure at an average level, similar to the mid-cycle corrections in Q3–Q4 2024 and Q2 2025 — both below the 5% threshold,” Glassnode added.

“When the unrealized loss remains within this range, the market can be seen as a phase of light adjustment, characterized by orderly repricing rather than panic.”

This statement was made just a few days after Vineet Budki, CEO of Sigma Capital, told Cointelegraph that Bitcoin could adjust by 65–70% in the next two years.

While many experts continue to debate the short-term trend, some others have started to lower their long-term forecasts.

On Thursday, Cathie Wood — CEO of ARK Invest — lowered her long-term Bitcoin price forecast by $300,000, suggesting that stablecoins are gradually diminishing Bitcoin's role as a store of value in emerging markets.

Previously, Ms. Wood predicted that Bitcoin could reach a peak of 1.5 million USD by 2030.

Thach Sanh