Trading moment: The Fed's probability of a rate cut in December rises, Bitcoin aims to test the resistance at $93,000, and Ethereum strives to reclaim the $2,900 mark.

Daily market key data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.

1. Market Observation

The market's judgment on whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in December is experiencing severe fluctuations. Initially, due to slowing inflation and weak labor data, the market widely expected a rate cut to be a foregone conclusion. However, a series of hawkish statements from Federal Reserve officials significantly cooled this expectation, with the probability of a rate cut dropping below 30% at one point. Nevertheless, the dovish signals released by New York Fed President Williams on Friday brought the probability of a rate cut back to over 70%. Currently, among the 12 voting members, 5 are already inclined to keep interest rates unchanged, creating a situation of balance, which makes the interest rate decision in December full of uncertainty.

Michael Hartnett, Chief Investment Strategist at Bank of America, pointed out that the current liquidity tightening has impacted multiple asset classes including cryptocurrencies, credit, and bank stocks, with its weak performance releasing signals similar to those in December 2018, which may force the Federal Reserve to shift towards easing. Looking back at 2025, global central banks have cut interest rates a total of 316 times, creating a liquidity feast that directly fueled the AI investment frenzy and cryptocurrency speculation. Looking ahead to 2026, Hartnett predicts the Federal Reserve will perform a “policy surrender,” being forced to initiate a rate-cutting cycle, at which point long-term zero-coupon bonds, Bitcoin as a liquidity “canary,” and mid-cap stocks sensitive to financing costs will become the main beneficiaries.

In terms of Bitcoin, market sentiment is intertwined between panic and speculation. The price briefly fell to a six-month low of $80,500 on Friday, confirming a “death cross” technical pattern. Analyst Mister Crypto pointed out that historical “death crosses” led to declines of 64%, 67%, and 71% in January 2022, March 2018, and September 2014, respectively. If the price cannot quickly rebound to the cost benchmark, it may confirm a deeper bearish trend, with Bitcoin prices potentially falling further to a low of $74,500. Analyst Rekt Capital also believes that the macro upward trend of Bitcoin has been broken, with this week's closing price above $86,000, and the next target will challenge the resistance level of $93,000. However, Hanmuxia stated that $80,500 may already be an important low point in this round of bearish market, but this does not mean that the bear market is over. The current bear market has lasted more than three months and is expected to continue for another three to four months. Despite the market's pessimism, Bitcoin rebounded strongly nearly 10% to $88,000 over the weekend. Analysts such as CryptoMichNL and Crypto Auris believe that the price may first fill the CME gap at $85,200, then challenge the range between $90,000 and $96,000. The key resistance levels pointed out by Aegon are at $88,400, $93,600, and $99,420. Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley revealed that he has increased his Bitcoin holdings at the $85,000 price level.

Ethereum market has also experienced significant volatility, with its price dropping by 15% to a four-month low of $2,625, leading to the liquidation of $460 million in leveraged long positions. Spot ETFs have also recorded net outflows for nine consecutive trading days, totaling $1.33 billion. However, data from the derivatives market reveals a glimmer of optimism. Analyst Marcel Pechman pointed out that despite the price drop, the funding rate for ETH perpetual futures has stabilized, and large traders on the OKX platform are even increasing their long positions, suggesting that the market may be brewing a rebound towards $3,200. Analyst Man of Bitcoin believes the price target for ETH is $2,889, while Ted indicated that if it can successfully reclaim the $2,800-$2,900 range, it is likely to advance towards $3,300-$3,400. Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan emphasized that the market is overlooking the upcoming Fusaka upgrade in December, which he sees as an undervalued catalyst that will significantly enhance Ethereum's value capture capability and potentially lead the next round of rebound. Liquid Capital founder Yi Lihua also announced that he has fully invested around the $2,700 price level, positioning ETH as the core allocation in his major public chain track.

The controversy surrounding Strategy (MSTR) has intensified over the weekend, as a research report released by JPMorgan regarding MSTR's removal from the MSCI index has sparked resistance actions within the crypto community. Meanwhile, Tom Lee, chairman of Bitmine, pointed out that due to the exhaustion of on-chain derivatives liquidity, institutional investors are hedging risks by shorting Strategy (MSTR) stock, which holds 650,000 bitcoins. Analyst RamenPanda stated that MSTR could be removed from the MSCI index on January 15, 2026, due to its bitcoin asset ratio exceeding 77%, potentially triggering forced sales of $8-9 billion, further exacerbating liquidity and stock price pressure. Currently, MSTR's stock price has fallen 64% from its peak, and its “issue shares to buy coins” model is difficult to sustain. In addition, the new MSCI regulations (which exclude companies with digital asset ratios above 50% from major indices) could also have potential impacts on other bitcoin reserve companies.

In terms of project dynamics, the decentralized AI data network Port3 Network was attacked by hackers due to a bridging vulnerability, resulting in the issuance of 1 billion tokens sold off on-chain, causing its token PORT3 to plummet. Binance announced the delisting of the PORT3 perpetual contract, and Bybit has also suspended related trading, with its market value currently showing as 0. Meanwhile, the pump.fun project team is accused of cashing out approximately $400 million in the past week, leading to its token PUMP breaking below par and dropping nearly 30% in the past week. On Friday, Coinbase announced the acquisition of the Solana-based trading platform Vector.fun, and the Tensor (TNSR) associated with Vector surged from $0.0418 to a peak of $0.365 on November 19, but the price has now retreated to $0.1485, with a 24-hour increase narrowing to 67%. Additionally, the highly anticipated Monad token sale on Coinbase has ended and will be distributed today, with trading set to begin on Solana.

2. Key Data (as of November 24, 13:00 HKT)

(Data source: CoinAnk, Upbit, Coingecko, SoSoValue, CoinMarketCap)

• Bitcoin: $86,934 (Year-to-date -7.03%), daily spot trading volume $51.05 billion
• Ethereum: $2839 (Year-to-date -14.88%), daily spot trading volume is $21.71 billion
• Fear and Greed Index: 12 (Extreme Fear)
• Average GAS: BTC: 1.02 sat/vB, ETH: 0.067 Gwei
• Market share: BTC 58.5%, ETH 11.5%
• Upbit 24-hour trading volume ranking: XRP, BTC, ETH, TRUST, SOL
• 24h BTC Long/Short Ratio: 49.31% / 50.69%
• Sector performance: NFT sector rose by 1.1%, Meme sector rose by 1.09%
• 24-hour Liquidation Data: A total of 98,323 people were liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of $185 million. The liquidation amount for BTC was $61.27 million, for ETH it was $41.14 million, and for ZEC it was $8.365 million.

3. ETF Flow (as of November 24)

• Bitcoin ETF: The Bitcoin spot ETF saw a net outflow of $1.22 billion last week, continuing a net outflow for 4 weeks.
• Ethereum ETF: The Ethereum spot ETF experienced a net outflow of $500 million last week, continuing a net outflow for 3 weeks.
• Solana ETF: SOL spot ETF had a net inflow of $128 million last week, continuing a net inflow for 4 consecutive weeks.

4. Today's Outlook

• Monad plans to launch its Layer1 blockchain mainnet and native token on November 24.
• Binance Alpha will launch Sparkle(SSS) on November 24, and Irys(IRYS) on November 25.
• Bloomberg analyst: The Grayscale Dogecoin ETF is expected to launch on November 24.
• MegaETH will launch a pre-deposit cross-chain bridge on November 25, with a total cap of 250 million USD.
• Starknet v0.14.1 is expected to launch on the mainnet on November 25.
• Plasma(XPL) will unlock approximately 88.89 million tokens on November 25 at 9 PM, accounting for 0.89% of the total supply, valued at approximately 18.1 million USD;
• WalletConnect Token(WCT) will unlock approximately 10.06 million tokens on November 25 at 8 AM, accounting for 10.07% of the total supply, valued at approximately 11.6 million USD;

Today's top 100 cryptocurrencies by market cap, largest declines: Starknet down 8.8%, Aerodrome Finance down 7.2%, Dash down 7.1%, Zcash down 6.1%, MYX Finance down 5.4%.

5. Hot News

• This week's macro outlook: The probability of a rate cut in December has surged to 73%, and Powell's “mouthpiece” is closely watching the Beige Book.
• This Week's Preview | Grayscale Dogecoin ETF and XRP ETF Launch; Singapore Exchange Derivatives Department Launches Bitcoin and Ethereum Perpetual Contracts
• Data: Tokens such as XPL, WCT, SAHARA will see large unlocks, with XPL unlocking a value of approximately 18.1 million US dollars.
• Analyst: Unknown entity suspected of shorting HYPE through 54 wallets, realizing a profit of $5.34 million.
• The 1inch team has withdrawn 7.56 million 1INCH from Binance again, worth 1.37 million dollars.
• Port3 launches token migration plan and destroys over 160 million tokens
• The U.S. Government Efficiency Department has been dissolved.
• Hackers exploited the PORT3 bridging vulnerability to mint 1 billion tokens and sold them, destroying the remaining 837 million tokens.
• A new wallet that may belong to Bitmine or SharpLink transferred $60.04 million in ETH from FalconX.
• Forward Industries transferred 1.727 million SOL to a certain wallet, worth nearly $220 million.
• The founder of Moonrock Capital claims that Coinbase's acquisition of VECTOR involves insider trading, with $TNSR skyrocketing 8 times in two days before plummeting by 40%.