Bitcoin drops to $70,600, Ethereum holds at 2,055. Analysts: Bull market score is only 10; don't put too much faith in this rebound.

Bitcoin continued to decline since last night, briefly reporting $70,923 this morning; Ethereum showed relative strength, dropping to $2,055 before rebounding, currently at $2,073. On-chain analysis firm CryptoQuant warns: Bitcoin’s bull market score is only 10 points (out of 100), and the current rebound is a short-term rally within a bear market pattern.
(Background: Is the bear market really here? Bitcoin’s on-chain “bull market index” drops to a two-year low, sparking community fears of a $20,000 washout target.)
(Additional context: CryptoQuant: Bitcoin has been in a bear market for two months, with a potential drop to $56,000–$60,000 before a rebound.)

Table of Contents

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• U.S. stock major indices all close lower, crypto market also under pressure
• CryptoQuant research director: Bull score 10 points, current rebound is a bear market fake-out
• Spot demand contraction has narrowed but remains negative
• Future scenarios: whether the rebound can continue depends on demand turning positive

Bitcoin fell from $72,300 last night, dropping to a intraday low of $70,658 at 1 a.m., a decline of about 2.3%. It slightly recovered to $70,923 this morning, still below the $71,000 psychological level. Ethereum showed rare relative strength in this move: it slid from $2,134, bottomed at $2,055, and has rebounded to $2,073 this morning, down about 2.9% intraday, without further decline alongside Bitcoin.

U.S. stock major indices all close lower, crypto market also under pressure

The main trigger for this decline was the U.S. stock market. Yesterday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.61%, the S&P 500 dropped 0.57%, and the Nasdaq declined 0.26%, with all three closing in the red.

Large tech stocks had mixed performance: Microsoft rose over 1% against the trend, NVIDIA, Netflix, Amazon, and Intel saw slight gains; Meta declined over 1%, while Apple, Tesla, and Google’s parent company Alphabet edged lower. The cybersecurity sector was a bright spot, with Okta surging 11%, CrowdStrike up over 4%, and Datadog up over 3%.

Recently, the correlation between the crypto market and the broader U.S. stock indices has remained high, meaning that before the stock market stabilizes clearly, Bitcoin’s ability to rally on its own momentum will be significantly limited.

CryptoQuant research director: Bull score 10 points, current rebound is a bear market fake-out

CryptoQuant research director Julio Moreno warned on Thursday about Bitcoin’s recent rebound from around $73,000.

“Although Bitcoin’s price has recently rebounded, it is still in a bear market. The fundamentals and technical indicators still point to a bearish environment. Therefore, the current rally should be seen as a bear market rally.”

The most telling number is CryptoQuant’s Bitcoin Bull Score Index: currently only 10 points (out of 100), near a two-year low. This index tracks multiple fundamental and technical indicators typically associated with bull cycles, including network activity, investor profit levels, spot demand, and market liquidity. A score of 10 indicates these indicators are almost entirely absent, far from the conditions needed to initiate a bull market.

Spot demand contraction has narrowed but remains negative

Data is not entirely pessimistic. Moreno pointed out that Bitcoin spot demand contraction has narrowed from about -136,000 BTC in early 2026 to around -25,000 BTC, indicating selling pressure has eased since early February. This partly explains the recent slight rebound from lows.

However, analysts remain cautious: demand is still in negative territory, meaning the market overall is still experiencing net outflows, and there is no sustained positive momentum to support a new bull run. Selling pressure has decreased, but buying strength is insufficient to drive a new rally.

Future scenarios: whether the rebound can continue depends on demand turning positive

Regarding the future outlook, several scenarios are possible:

Scenario 1 (bullish): If Bitcoin spot demand turns positive in the coming weeks, combined with a stabilization of the U.S. stock market, BTC could establish a base between $71,000 and $73,000, then attempt to challenge the $75,000 resistance zone.

Scenario 2 (neutral): If demand contraction continues but does not turn positive, Bitcoin may trade sideways between $70,000 and $73,000, digesting previous declines, with the direction remaining uncertain.

Scenario 3 (bearish): If the stock market continues to decline and macroeconomic conditions worsen, leading to renewed negative spot demand, the support zone of $56,000–$60,000 warned by CryptoQuant earlier could become a key focus for the market.

As for Ethereum, in the absence of a clear Bitcoin trend, ETH’s relative resilience during this dip is noteworthy. However, if BTC slides further, whether the $2,055 support can hold remains uncertain. Based on current data, it is prudent to remain cautious about each rebound until the Bitcoin bull score significantly improves from 10 points.