Bittensor (TAO) is facing a 4-month resistance level as the price surpasses the $300 mark

Bittensor (TAO) is currently trading around $330, up 12.05% for the day and 19% for the week, marking its first surpassing of the $300 level since late November 2025. This rally brings the price close to a key resistance convergence zone—an area that has repeatedly halted recovery attempts over the past four months.

Market Sentiment Still Clearly Divergent

Data from Glassnode’s perpetual futures funding rate shows that negative rates dominated from early February to mid-March, with many periods dropping sharply to -0.015% to -0.04%. This reflects the dominance of short positions as TAO plummeted from $275 to around $153.

Negative funding rates mean shorts pay longs, creating “compression pressure” in the market. As the price began to recover from February’s lows, short positions were forced to close (short squeeze), amplifying the rally well beyond the impact of spot buying.

Funding Rate TAO | Source: Glassnode Recently, the funding rate has turned positive, fluctuating around +0.002% to +0.005% from March 19–24. This shift indicates the short squeeze momentum is weakening. However, the oscillation between negative and positive rates also reflects traders’ mixed sentiment, with selling pressure persisting even in an uptrend—an indication of cautious, even slightly negative, sentiment.

Money Flow Divergence Signals Warning

The daily CMF indicator paints a less optimistic picture after the price rally. In mid-March, when TAO hovered between $261 and $280, the CMF peaked near +0.20—showing strong money inflow supported by trading volume.

However, as the price continued rising from $261 to $308, the CMF steadily declined to +0.06. A series of lower highs on the CMF forms a bearish divergence compared to the rising price trend. In other words, even as the price made higher highs, the supporting money flow weakened—indicating diminishing buying strength.

TAO CMF Indicator | Source: TradingView If the CMF continues to fall toward zero, it will confirm that selling pressure is gradually absorbing the rally, a common scenario when prices approach strong resistance zones.

TAO Enters a Critical Testing Zone

On the 2-day chart, TAO is testing the 0.618 Fibonacci level at $306—a key support/resistance level that has historically acted as both support and resistance. Just above, the 310 USD EMA forms a confluence resistance zone between $306 and $311. These levels originate from the downtrend that began in November 2025, when the price fell from over $469.

A solid daily close above the 310 USD EMA would open the door to a move toward the 0.786 Fibonacci level at $350, representing approximately a 14% gain. Further out, the 1.0 Fibonacci at $407 is a zone of previous accumulation before a major correction.

Conversely, the $275 level (Fibonacci 0.5) serves as the nearest important support. If the price is rejected at $310 and the CMF does not improve, the risk of a correction back to $243 increases. Losing this zone would break the current recovery structure entirely.

Notably, the upward trendline formed since March 12 currently provides dynamic support in the $270–$280 range. Maintaining above this trendline is essential for the bullish scenario to remain intact.