The probability of Bitcoin falling below $65,000 exceeds 70%. What is the market worried about?
The weekend sell-off caused Bitcoin's price to briefly dip below the $75,000 psychological threshold, and market sentiment seems to have changed overnight. On the prediction platform Polymarket, an intriguing wager is heating up: the odds of Bitcoin falling below $65,000 in 2026 have surged to 72%, attracting nearly $1 million in bets. This is not just a numbers game; it acts as a mirror reflecting the deep currents surging within the current crypto market—from the frenzy following Trump's election victory to the widespread anxiety over "deep dips," with the rapid shift being astonishing.
What also alarms some veteran players is that this decline has put Strategy, the publicly traded company with the largest Bitcoin holdings globally, to its first test since the end of 2023, where its average cost basis is being breached. It's like a marathon leader suddenly finding the track beneath them becoming slippery.