In the past two or three months, many people have been asking whether the bull market is still there? There will be an interest rate cut this year, will it be bullish after the interest rate cut? The first question, the bull market is still not there, this February post said, people are also cloudy, see different standards, but objectively speaking, the bull has been gone on 12.18 last year, 1.20 Trump's official inauguration can be seen as a spasm after the death of the cow, at that point in time, the chase is basically standing guard on the top of the mountain or has long been hanged. On the monthly line, ETH has been in a deep bear after January, and there is no bottom at present, and there is no bottom, which means that it will continue to test new lows; SOL is also on the eve of a deep bear (with a fall below the 100 mark as the boundary, it will accelerate the decline later, and last week's reversal above 150 is an escape). Only BTC has not completely fallen to the bearish market definition indicator, the deep bear cut-off point: 62800. Note that it is the "deep bear" cut-off point, which already indicates that it is a bear market trend, and the bear market has been running for two months, which is an indisputable fact. And from the perspective of the market's information performance, it is also very clear, every time it is ready to plummet, some information such as what exchange platform has been hacked and stolen coins will come, and only in the bear market can there be these messy negative information. Have you seen this information in a bull market? Never, there is money in the bull market, and the money is even hotter, why are there no hackers stealing coins? From the side, it's not because they are short of money.

The second question: Will there be a rate cut, and if so, will it lead to a bull run? This has been mentioned multiple times in the past two months. The market expects 1-2 rate cuts this year, but this is merely an expectation; who can be sure that there will definitely be 2 rate cuts this year? Nobody! There will be many variables, and the rate cuts could completely halt due to unexpected inflation rises, and there may even be a resumption of rate hikes next year. All of this is possible. If there is nothing certain, there's no need to have excessive expectations; the more you expect, the greater the disappointment. Furthermore, even if there are 2 rate cuts, it does not necessarily mean that a bull run will occur; at most, it may just be the last one or two rebounds before reaching the peak. I have never agreed with those die-hard bulls calling for 150,000 or 250,000; blindly FOMOing is meaningless. Currently, whether in a bear or bull market, what we need to do is navigate the volatile market. 80% of the time this year will likely be shorting, with only 20% of opportunities for low buys and phased bottom fishing.