Today, the Ethereum (ETH) market continues the recent trend of volatile bearish patterns, with market sentiment being pressured by both technical factors and capital flows. However, the oversold signals and long-term value support may provide opportunities for a short-term rebound. Based on on-chain data and technical indicators, the strategy recommendations are as follows:

The range of $1,600-$1,630 serves as a strong short-term resistance. Data from April 11 shows that there is a $240 million options selling pressure concentrated in this area, and the ETH/BTC exchange rate has hit a historical low (0.0187), combined with institutional funds continuously leaning towards Bitcoin, limiting the rebound momentum. If the price reaches this range and the 4-hour Bollinger Bands constrict, a light short position can be taken, targeting a drop to $1,450 (on-chain liquidation concentration), with a stop loss set above $1,650.
$1,450 is a key support level on the daily chart. If it is lost, it may trigger a chain liquidation of staking positions, further probing down to the $1,380-$1,400 range. Historical data shows that this area is a "golden pit" for long-term investors' strategic accumulation. Moreover, after the on-chain realized price (which is $2,300) falls below, there is an 80% probability that the bottom is near. If the price touches $1,380 and is accompanied by a bottom divergence on the 1-hour chart, one could attempt a short-term rebound long position, targeting $1,550 (chip vacuum area), with a stop loss at $1,320.
Ethereum ETF's net outflow on a single day has expanded to $6.8 million, Grayscale's holdings have decreased by 4.7%, and institutional short-term selling pressure has not been fully released.
Trump's tariff policy has heightened market risk aversion, with the VIX index rising to 29. Funds are flowing into traditional assets like gold, while the volatility ratio of cryptocurrencies has reached a new high. We need to be wary of black swan events triggering hedging sell-offs.
The total position is controlled within 40%, the leverage ratio is ≤ 3 times, and 35% of the funds are reserved to deal with extreme markets.
If the daily closing price breaks above $1,750 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level) and the MACD forms a golden cross, it can be seen as a reversal signal, with the target revised upwards to $1,900.