The Federal Reserve (FED) is no longer raising interest rates, my mortgage hasn't decreased, but $ETH has risen first.

After last week's Federal Reserve (FED) interest rate meeting, I came across two news items simultaneously:

Powell said that although inflation remains high, the trend is improving, and a rate cut may occur within the year.

ETH price broke through 2500 dollars, with a weekly rise of nearly 10%.

At that moment, I thought to myself: How come with just one sentence from the Federal Reserve, my mortgage didn't get cheaper, yet ETH rose first? This logic sounds absurd, but in the crypto world, it makes perfect sense. Today, let's start with this incident and talk about why ETH is so sensitive and what gives it the right to rise first.

1. Why is ETH so bullish on the expectation of interest rate cuts?

In traditional markets, interest rate cuts represent liquidity easing, making it easier for asset prices to rise; whereas in the crypto world, assets like ETH, which are technology growth-type assets, are more sensitive to interest rates. Simply put, when interest rates loosen, money starts to stir, and people begin to ask, "Is ETH undervalued?" Let's take a look at the data from the past few days:

▪️ETH has risen 9.7% in the last 7 days, currently priced at $2,513

▪️Significant inflow of funds: 24-hour trading volume exceeds 10.6 billion USD

▪️Market sentiment indicator has returned to the "greed" zone.

▪️The total amount of Lido staking has returned above 9M ETH, and the long-term optimistic sentiment is heating up.

In other words, ETH is now the kite waiting for the wind; once interest rate expectations ease, it will soar.

2. The rise of ETH is not the price, but the reaffirmation of logic.

ETH did not suddenly get better; its value support has been laid out for almost a year.

▪️The Pectra upgrade is expected to go live in Q4, including features such as account abstraction and EIP-7702.

▪️L2 ecosystem explosion: Arbitrum, OP Stack, Base and others continue to expand

▪️ETF speculation: Grayscale and BlackRock have submitted applications for ETH spot ETFs, and the SEC will respond in May (key date: around May 23).

These things used to happen before, but no one acted because there was a hammer hanging over the macro level. Now that The Federal Reserve (FED) is not so hawkish, the old logic surrounding ETH seems particularly fresh—just like that coat in your wardrobe that you thought was useless in winter, but suddenly you realize it’s really nice when spring comes.

3. Ordinary people can also find a reference point from this wave of market.

I know that many people see the rise and fall and think that I don't understand The Federal Reserve (FED), whether they raise interest rates or not has nothing to do with me. But in fact, we don't necessarily need sophisticated models to make decisions; life experience is a very good analogy.

For example, a buddy of mine has been complaining every day that his salary doesn't rise with the prices. But when ETH rose, he immediately jumped in to replenish his position. I asked him, "Didn't you say you had no money?" He replied, "ETH rising means the liquidity story has started." This answer isn't professional, but it's quite sincere.

Because you will find that: price is actually the best signal. It may not tell you the future, but it will tell you - there is wind now.

No one can guarantee whether ETH can rise to 3000 or 3500. But this current wave is not based on empty hopes, but rather on the re-accumulation of multiple logics:

▪️Macroeconomic interest rate expectations have eased

▪️The technical ecosystem continues to expand

▪️Market sentiment begins to warm up

In simple terms, when the wind comes, are you ready with your sails? Of course, it's not advisable for everyone to go All in or to blindly FOMO, but if you already have ETH in hand or are preparing to participate in the crypto space, then at least you should know: ETH is not rising just because the market is up; it has its own strength.

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