#4月CPI数据公布

3.4%! This is not high inflation, but the "trap" of the Federal Reserve.
CPI year-on-year is 3.4%, far from peaking, but not "hot" enough to support further rate hikes. This kind of "positioning inflation" is trapping the Federal Reserve—raising rates suppresses growth, while lowering rates lets prices run wild. The policy space is becoming increasingly cramped.
From the perspective of data structure, energy prices have a significant impact on the overall CPI, especially with gasoline prices rising over 9% year-on-year. These types of exogenous variables will make inflation have a stronger "uncontrollability", limiting the effectiveness of monetary policy.
The more challenging issue is that inflationary stickiness is intensifying. Rent and healthcare prices continue to rise, indicating that the transmission of labor costs is still incomplete. These structural factors are far more stubborn than short-term commodity prices.
The market still has fantasies about interest rate cuts in the middle of the year, but the reality is that the Federal Reserve may be forced to maintain high rates for a longer period until structural inflation truly eases. The yield curve may invert again, putting pressure on financial stocks.