#六月利率预测 Bitcoin sets a new record: 3 key differences between the new high in 2025 and the previous peak.

Bitcoin surpassed $111,000 in May 2025. Low futures funding rates indicate that the market rebound is more concentrated on spot, with lower speculation.
Despite the price increase, ETF inflows remain moderate, indicating that institutional and individual investors are not the main driving force this time.
Social interactions are at a record low. The lack of individual investors and organic long-term accumulation is considered to be a driving factor for growth.
Bitcoin #BTC Market Cap Hits ATH BTC( has once again excited the crypto community, reaching a new all-time high )ATH( of $111,000. However, this latest price surge has shown a significant deviation from previous market cycles.
According to market indicators and on-chain data, there are three key differences that stand out compared to past Bitcoin peaks. These differences point to a more mature and less speculative market.
1. Low financing interest rate
A key indicator of an overheated market is the funding rate in the perpetual futures market. This rate reflects the cost that traders pay to maintain long or short positions and serves as an indicator of overall market sentiment.
According to the data, when Bitcoin peaks in March and December 2024, the funding rate rises. This indicates an excess of long positions and an overheated market. In such cases, it usually leads to a significant price correction afterwards.
However, despite the increase in long positions in May 2025, the funding rate remains significantly lower than the previous peak. This indicates that the current rebound is more driven by factors in the spot market rather than speculative behavior in the futures market.
The current continuous funding rate is much lower compared to March and December last year. This means that the recent rebound has been driven by spot trading, with much less enthusiasm. The likelihood of a severe pullback is relatively low.
Stability at this level is a positive sign. It indicates that the market is moving towards a more sustainable direction.
2. Weak ETF fund inflows: Who is buying Bit?
In the previous bull market, especially in March and December 2024, the US spot Bitcoin ETFs played a significant role in driving price increases. Data shows that these ETFs recorded billions of dollars in inflows during these periods.
However, at this new peak in May 2025, ETF inflows remain relatively moderate.
The spot Bitcoin ETF has seen an inflow of $608.99 million over six consecutive days against the backdrop of rising investor confidence.
The chart shows that despite Bitcoin's price recently skyrocketing from $70,000 to over $100,000, the inflow of funds into ETFs remains well below previous highs. This indicates that neither individual nor institutional ETF investors are the main driving force behind the current rebound.
Recently, the fund inflow into ETFs has been much quieter than when it broke through previous historical highs. This indicates that ETF buyers ) individuals and institutions ( are not the biggest contributors to this rebound.
This raises a question: If it's not ETFs, then who is buying Bit?
There are speculations that large companies like MicroStrategy or other funds are quietly accumulating BTC. However, detailed data remains unclear. If institutional investors return to the market more actively, it could bring greater upside potential.
3. Low retail investor interest: what does this mean?
Another significant difference in this cycle is the lack of retail investors.
In previous bull markets, each peak of Bitcoin was accompanied by a surge in public interest. This was reflected in high social engagement metrics. However, this time, the social metrics related to Bitcoin are at historical lows.
It is worth noting that the Google searches for "Bitcoin" in May 2025 have hardly increased compared to the past peaks. This indicates that retail investors have not yet entered the market in large numbers.
Data also shows that the number of wallet addresses classified as "shrimp" holding less than 1 BTC) has fallen to its lowest level since 2021.
The lack of retail investor activity may be a positive signal. It indicates that the current rebound is not driven by FOMO (Fear of Missing Out ), which is a common catalyst for bubbles and crashes. Instead, it seems that organic demand from long-term investors has played an important role.
All these factors point to a more mature market with sustainable growth potential.
Can Bitcoin reach $120,000 as many analysts have predicted? Only time will tell. But for now, this is a period that needs to be carefully observed.