BTC retraced to the price range of 103000-104000, and many alts fell about 10% as well. The fear and greed index returned to the median of 50, and there were again cries of despair in the market. Weren't people expecting BTC to fall before? Why do they say they are numb to the decline when the market comes? It seems that everyone’s heartache is on the alts. In fact, today’s price is quite similar to the price a week ago, especially for the representative altcoin ETH, whose support level at 2450-2550 is still quite strong, and ETF funds continue to flow in. Now, if we hold alts, there is no need to pay too much attention to our coins for the time being. If we are holding coins for the long term, it doesn't do much good to pay attention now. If we are going to watch, let’s focus on ETH; if ETH can hold up, then there is hope for the alts we hold.

After browsing through the analysis of various analysts on the short-term trend of BTC, most believe that the pullback will continue to deepen, with 60% seeing a range of 101000-102000, 30% seeing a range of 92000-93000, and a few others looking at around 88000. Personally, I think this situation is still normal and there is no need to be overly pessimistic. This high-level pullback was something that could be anticipated. As of 16:00 this afternoon, the quarterly options for BTC and ETH have been settled, and currently, the open interest of the bears is 1.3 times that of the bulls. Considering the current market capitalization ratio of BTC.D, I personally believe that the probability of BTC rebounding in the short term is a bit higher.
Tomorrow we will close the monthly line, and this round of rise has indeed entered its final phase. When BTC enters a large amplitude sideways fluctuation range, the main force usually starts to allocate funds to valuable alts at this time. I believe the experience in May has already given everyone a preview of the future market trend, with BTC breaking through the previous high without any warning, and ETH also showing a relatively independent market trend. However, 80% of the altcoins without market heat and liquidity remain stagnant, having already lost 90% of their market value compared to the high in December 2024. This confirms last year's judgment on this round of bull market, returning to value, the strong will remain strong.
Yesterday's dynamics explored a problem, that is, the psychological torture of copycat positions, especially when the price comes to this position, how to choose has become a psychological barrier for most people, and this feeling of gain and loss is like a mountain pressing on the hearts of retail investors. In fact, I would like to understand a question, have retail investors' copycat holdings been decreasing? However, from the perspective of ordinary people, it is difficult to form systematic and accurate data on the position of retail investors. Judging from what I learned from the dynamic comment area, there should be a lot of people who were full before March 25, including myself. But since the end of April, retail investors' positions have begun to slowly decrease in the rise of BTC, and most of my friends have begun to reduce their positions, replacing them with U waiting for the next round of drawdown, and even some friends think that a bear market is coming. That's why I said yesterday that this bull market feels weird.
As we enter 2025, more and more people believe in the rumors of a bull market without altcoin seasons. The belief and confidence in holding coins have gradually faded amid multiple uncertainties, and many have surrendered their chips amid repeated fluctuations and unrest. Based on past experiences, I have always believed that any bear market occurs when retail investors are generally experiencing FOMO, but such FOMO is not happening at the moment, so we are not likely to immediately enter a bear market at this stage.
Based on the data sources we have access to, the retail investor positions cannot be specifically quantified, but the whales of various altcoins can definitely see them. You might want to ask the people around you, if everyone is reducing their positions, controlling their holdings, and going into cash, then the upcoming market might actually be more optimistic. When most of us feel that a bear market is approaching and believe that the market is likely to fall, it is less likely to actually fall.
In summary, returning to my own position, I personally suggest that the long-term spot position can be reduced, it can be defensive, and it can be sold high. However, when there is a pullback, you really need to have firm confidence in being bullish. Even if you choose to reduce your position and hold U, waiting for a significant pullback, it is still best to keep a certain level of position and be well-prepared for any potential gaps. If you sell and just wait for the pullback, and if an unexpected rally occurs again, then it would be unfortunate for the persistence over the past year.
This point in time is indeed the best time for bookmakers and retail investors to fight their psychology. Personally, it is recommended not to try to prepare for a long-term bear market, you can rush high and bearish in operation, but be cautious to bet short. For the comment section to inquire about the specific month of the drawdown. I don't have the ability to answer this kind of question, because the current global liquidity does not have the conditions for a bull market, even if there is the so-called good news of the Trump family, Vice President Vance came forward to call out the order and other events that were unimaginable before, the market is also correcting and falling. But the plunge and surge in a short period of time is indeed a signal for the start of the oxtail, and it is difficult to buy a cow to turn back, and the most afraid is that it will suddenly start, and you are not in the car.
Entering June, my personal position is not to blindly predict the bull market's rise, but I also cannot completely stick to my past strategies. For large position coins, I will continue to hold and wait without making any adjustments. For small position coins, I will choose to stop-loss and wait for replenishment. Since we cannot predict the future, we can only manage our positions well.
Any breakout may occur under panic emotions. Perhaps today you see ETH at 2450, and in two or three days it could turn into 3000. This situation has happened before and will definitely happen at any time in the future.
Wishing you a healthy Dragon Boat Festival and a pleasant holiday ☕