BTC retraced to the price range of 103000-104000, and many alts have also dropped about 10%. The fear and greed index has returned to the median of 50, and there are again cries of despair in the market. Didn't we hope for BTC to fall before? Why do we say we're scared when the market comes? It seems that everyone's worries are about the alts. In fact, today's price is quite similar to a week ago, especially for the representative of alts, ETH, the support level of 2450-2550 is still quite strong, and ETF funds are still flowing in. Now, if we hold alts, we don't need to pay too much attention to our coins for the time being. If we are holding coins for the long term, it won't do much good to pay attention now. If we are going to watch, let's watch ETH. If ETH can hold, then there is hope for the alts we hold.

After browsing the analysis of various analysts regarding the short-term trend of BTC, most believe that the pullback will continue to deepen, with 60% seeing it reaching 101000-102000, 30% seeing it at 92000-93000, and a few predicting it around 88000. Personally, I think this situation is still normal, and there's no need to be so pessimistic. This high-level pullback was something that could be anticipated. As of 4 PM today, the quarterly options for BTC and ETH have been settled, and currently, the short positions in the market are 1.3 times the long positions. Considering the current market cap ratio trend of BTC.D, I personally believe the probability of a short-term rebound for BTC is slightly higher.
Tomorrow marks the end of the monthly line, and this round of price increase has indeed entered its final phase. When BTC enters a significant range of sideways consolidation, the main players generally start allocating funds to valuable alts at this time. I believe the experiences from May have already given everyone a preview of the future market trend, with BTC breaking through previous highs without warning, and ETH also showing a relatively independent trend. However, 80% of the altcoins, lacking market enthusiasm and liquidity, remain stagnant, having lost 90% of their market value compared to the highs of December 2024. This confirms last year's judgment on this bull market cycle, returning to value, the strong remain strong.
Yesterday's dynamics explored a problem, that is, the psychological torture of copycat positions, especially when the price comes to this position, how to choose has become a psychological barrier for most people, and this feeling of gain and loss is like a mountain pressing on the hearts of retail investors. In fact, I would like to understand a question, have retail investors' copycat holdings been decreasing? However, from the perspective of ordinary people, it is difficult to form systematic and accurate data on the position of retail investors. Judging from what I learned from the dynamic comment area, there should be a lot of people who were full before March 25, including myself. But since the end of April, retail investors' positions have begun to slowly decrease in the rise of BTC, and most of my friends have begun to reduce their positions, replacing them with U waiting for the next round of drawdown, and even some friends think that a bear market is coming. That's why I said yesterday that this bull market feels weird.
As we enter 2025, more and more people believe in the rumors of no altcoin season bull market. The faith and confidence of holding coins have gradually diminished amidst multiple uncertainties, and in the repeated turbulence and anxiety, they have surrendered their chips. Based on past experiences, I have always believed that any bear market occurs only when retail investors are generally experiencing FOMO, but this FOMO situation is not happening at the moment, so we will not immediately enter a bear market at this stage.
The retail investor positions cannot be specifically measured by numerical values based on the data sources we have access to, but the whales of various alts must be able to see it. You might as well ask those around you; if everyone is reducing their positions, controlling their holdings, and going to cash, then the upcoming market may actually look a bit optimistic. When most of us feel that a bear market is coming and believe that the market is likely to fall, it is unlikely to actually fall.
In summary, returning to one's own positions, I personally suggest that the long-term spot positions can be reduced; it can be defensive and can be sold high. However, one must remain confident and bullish during pullbacks. Even if you choose to reduce your position and hold USDT while waiting for a significant pullback, it is still best to maintain a certain level of positions and be prepared for any potential missed opportunities. If you sell and wait for a pullback, and then unexpectedly experience a surge in the market again, then it would be regrettable after more than a year of steadfastness.
At this point in time, it is indeed the best time for the big players and retail investors to battle psychologically. I personally advise against trying to prepare for a long term bear market. You can go bullish and look to short during operations, but be cautious about betting against it. Regarding inquiries in the comments about specific months for pullbacks and months for rallies, I am not capable of answering such questions because currently, global liquidity does not meet the conditions for a bull market rally. Even if there are so-called good news from the Trump family, and events like Vice President Vance publicly calling for trades—things that were previously unimaginable—the market will still experience a pullback and decline. However, the short-term volatility is indeed a signal for the initiation of a bull market tail. It's hard to buy a bull's turn; what is most feared is that the train suddenly departs, and you are not on it.
Entering June, my personal view on positions is not to blindly predict a bullish surge, but I also cannot completely stick to my previous decisions. For large positions, I will continue to hold and wait without making any adjustments. For small positions, I will choose to cut losses and wait for opportunities to replenish. Since we cannot predict the future, we can only manage our positions well.
Any breakthrough may occur under panic sentiment. Perhaps today you see ETH at 2450, and in two or three days it could change to 3000. This situation has not happened before, and it will definitely occur in the next any time period.
Wishing you health on the Dragon Boat Festival and a happy holiday☕#BTC行情分析 #成长值抽奖，赢 iPhone 16 和精美周边