#美国国债 In the short term, the United States may alleviate maturity pressure by issuing 50-year ultra-long-term treasury bonds, but it will need to pay a higher interest rate premium (about 0.8-1.5 percentage points), further increasing the interest burden. In the long run, the unsustainability of debt and the widening gap in economic growth may force the U.S. to choose between debt restructuring or implicit default (by diluting the value of debt through inflation) if debt/GDP exceeds 150%. The international community is accelerating the construction of a non-dollar settlement system, facing a restructuring of U.S. economic hegemony and the global financial order.

The $37 trillion U.S. debt is not only a reflection of the imbalance in the U.S. fiscal system but also a "gray rhino" for global economic stability. The core contradiction lies in the unsustainability of the mathematics of debt expansion (requiring a GDP growth of over 4.5% per year to maintain a stable debt ratio, while the potential growth rate of the U.S. is only 1.8-2.2%). If the trend cannot be reversed through political compromise or structural reform, a systemic crisis may become inevitable.