Is the 4-year bull and bear cycle in the crypto world still there???

Recently, many people are asking: Is this the peak of the bull market? Is there still a bull and bear cycle in the crypto world? Is it too late for me to buy now?
For this type of question, what everyone is most concerned about is: "Can we still make money?"
But before answering, we need to clarify one thing: why does the crypto world have cycles?
The so-called "bull-bear alternation" is essentially the "hot and cold alternation" of the market. When prices rise, it is because there are many buyers and high demand; when prices fall, it is because there are many sellers and demand cannot keep up. This is not some profound theory; it is essentially human nature at work.
Those who bought in at a low price have made money and naturally want to cash out; once they sell, supply increases, and buyers cannot keep up, leading to a price drop. This logic exists in any financial market and is not related to blockchain or Bitcoin itself; it comes from human nature—and human nature has not changed over thousands of years. Therefore, cycles will always exist.
So the question arises: Is this cycle still a "4-year cycle"?
It's hard to say. In the past, Bitcoin was clearly affected by halving, with a fluctuation cycle every four years. However, the market is more complex now, with institutions, policies, and global macroeconomic variables involved. So, saying it happens every four years is also unreliable. No one can accurately predict "where the peak is" or "when it will drop," even the top analysts can only guess the probabilities.
But what about ordinary people? It's simple - seize the "obvious upward" trend in the middle, don't chase the top, and don't try to catch the bottom. Even if you're not greedy and take a bite out of the middle, the result will still be quite good.
So is it a bull market now? From the trend of BTC rising from $15,000 to $110,000, this is already a situation that is as "bull" as it can get. Do you think it's the peak? No one can say for sure; it's not impossible for it to surge to $150,000, $180,000, or even $200,000 in the future — but don't forget, the current BTC market cap is not what it used to be, and every significant rise requires a massive influx of funds; it can't be driven by "faith" alone.
My own approach is relatively conservative: I have been dollar-cost averaging from the bottom up, so I have now started to gradually reduce my positions and lock in profits. You are a newcomer, just entering the market, so your choices might be different: you could invest in small amounts over the long term in batches, or you could wait for the next bear market to take action. But I must remind you that almost all newcomers get trapped in the first round; there's nothing to be afraid of, everyone has gone through this.
A friend told me that he only has $15,000 and is worried about what to do if the price drops after buying. I said: it depends on how much this $15,000 represents of your total assets. If it's your "entire fortune", then I would suggest you hold off for a while. But if it's just 10%-20% of spare money, then it's fine. What's important is not the amount of money, but whether you have the psychological preparation to "withstand the drop".
The biggest problem is not losing money, but rather the life and emotions you can't handle after losing money. If a drop means you have to eat instant noodles and still pay off loans, then such an investment is toxic. The more you fear missing out on opportunities, the easier it is to go all in, ultimately leading to a mental breakdown. Remember: it's not the account that can't withstand a bear market, but the person themselves.
Everyone is now focused on the "Federal Reserve interest rate cut" and believes it will lead to a significant increase. However, you also need to see clearly that the US won't cut rates that quickly, and Japan might even raise rates. Once Japan takes action, funds might withdraw from the dollar to exchange for yen, which could actually cause the market to drop first. This kind of macro game is something we ordinary people can't really calculate.
In summary: at this stage, don't expect to gain a lot all at once. The upside potential is limited, but the downside risk still exists. If you haven't been buying all the way up from the bottom, this is no longer a good position for a desperate bet. Being stable is much more important than getting rich quickly.
#BTC #ETH #SOL #PI #MEME