The US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) will be released tonight, and the US stock market may experience significant fluctuations as a result.

On July 3rd, simulations from JPMorgan's trading division indicate that if the employment data released on Thursday resembles the weak trend of the earlier ADP report, the US stock market is likely to experience a significant sell-off. JPMorgan has set up market reactions under different scenarios:

An increase of 85,000 to 105,000: The S&P 500 index could decline by 0.25% to 1.5%;

Below 85,000: The S&P 500 index is likely to plummet by 2%-3%;

The report warns: "In the worst-case scenario, the market will face the risk of stagflation (weak economic growth accompanied by high inflation), at which point both fiscal and monetary policies may be powerless." The report particularly points out: "As long as the US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) are above 100,000, the stock market will still receive support." Of course, employment data has also exceeded expectations in the past and may do so again. JPMorgan predicts:

An increase of 125,000 to 145,000: The S&P 500 index may rise by 0.75% to 1.25%;

Over 145,000: The S&P 500 index's increase may expand to 1%-1.5%.