Bitcoin Market Turmoil: Silent Transfer of Control Behind $2.1 Trillion Market Capitalization Whale Sell-off vs. Institutional Takeover, a Quiet Power Shift is Reshaping the Bitcoin Market. According to Bloomberg, although prices hover near historic highs (around $110,000), volatility has plummeted, and its investment attributes are undergoing a fundamental transformation. 🐋 Whales Selling Off: Over $5 Billion BTC Exits • Data agency 10x Research shows that in the past year, Bitcoin whales (including early miners, offshore funds, and anonymous wealthy individuals) have sold off over 500,000 BTC, worth over $50 billion at current prices. • This scale is almost equivalent to the net inflow of Bitcoin since the approval of the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF and is also close to the $65 billion holdings accumulated by Michael Saylor and his company MicroStrategy (now renamed Strategy) over the past five years. • Many whales have very low holding costs, and some are not simply selling but are exchanging BTC for equity through OTC transactions (such as participating in financing deals linked to the public market). "What we are seeing is a turnover of the foundational holdings... One less noticed reason is that whales are converting BTC into equity exposure linked to the public market through physical contributions." — Edward Chin, co-founder of Parataxis Capital 🏦 Institutions Aggressively Accumulating: Controlling a Quarter of the Circulating Supply • Meanwhile, Bitcoin ETFs, MicroStrategy/Strategy, and many following **listed companies** have absorbed nearly 900,000 BTC in the past year. • Currently, institutional investors hold about 4.8 million BTC, accounting for nearly a quarter of Bitcoin's total circulating supply (around 20 million BTC). • A stark contrast: In 2020, only about 2% of anonymous addresses controlled 95% of BTC. Now, the ownership structure of Bitcoin is quickly tilting toward institutionalization. 📉 Volatility Eroding: Is Bitcoin's "Wild" Character Fading? • This turnover has made it difficult for Bitcoin prices to break through historic highs for months, even in the face of favourable information such as the Trump administration's full support for cryptocurrencies. • Bitcoin's volatility has significantly decreased: Deribit's BTC volatility index has dropped to a near two-year low, indicating that the market expects a substantial reduction in annualized volatility over the next 30 days. • "Cryptocurrency is becoming less of an alternative and more of a mature legitimate asset class... We expect volatility to continue to compress." — Rob Strebel, head of relationship management at trading firm DRW (which includes the crypto department Cumberland) 🔄 Identity Reshaping: From High-Risk Speculation to Long-Term Allocation? • This silent transfer is transforming Bitcoin from a "high-risk high-volatility asset" into a "slow-burn allocation asset." • Some analysts expect Bitcoin's annualized return may be capped at 10%-20% range in the future, far below the near 1400% surge in 2017. • "Long-term, Bitcoin may resemble a boring dividend stock... increasing on average each year, but with diminishing returns, becoming more like an attractive retirement allocation asset." — Jeff Dorman, Chief Investment Officer at Arca ⚠️ Risk Warning: Imbalance Concerns and "Takeover" Doubts • Key risk points: If whales continue large-scale sell-offs while institutional inflows (such as ETF inflows) stagnate, the market may crash due to imbalance. Historical data shows that small outflows have previously triggered massive declines (a 2% outflow caused a 74% drop in 2018, and a 9% outflow caused a 64% drop in 2022). • Critics warn: Institutional entry provides whales with the long-desired "large-scale exit liquidity," and if cryptocurrency market sentiment turns, it may ultimately be retail investors and pension holders who bear the losses. • "The long-standing goal has always been to make Bitcoin an asset favored by institutions, thus providing whales with ample exit liquidity to cash out." — Hilary Allen, professor at the University of Washington Law School and long-time cryptocurrency skeptic 🔮 Future Outlook: Will the New Normal Persist? • Despite the risks, most views suggest the trend shifting from anonymous whales to institutional allocations may continue, supporting the current market dynamics. • "This state may persist for a long time — even years... Bitcoin is more like an asset with a 10%-20% annualized return. Its essence is really changing." — Markus Thielen, CEO of 10x Research • Bitcoin miner MARA Holdings CEO Fred Thiel holds a different view: "We are approaching the market peak... but I personally believe that today's market dynamics are very different." 💎 Key Points Summary • Bitcoin whales sell-off (500,000+/$50 billion+) and institutional accumulation (ETF/listed companies) hedge against each other. • Bitcoin volatility has dropped to a near two-year low, with prices struggling to break through. • The ownership structure of Bitcoin is rapidly institutionalizing, with institutions controlling about 1/4 of the circulating supply. • Bitcoin's attributes are shifting from high-risk speculative assets to long-term allocation assets, with expected returns stabilizing (annualized 10-20%). • Major risks: Whale sell-offs and stagnation of institutional inflows leading to imbalance and crashes; beware of whales using institutions as "exit liquidity." • This new market structure dominated by institutions may persist for "years," marking a fundamental change in Bitcoin's essence. #Gate上线xStocks交易 #Gate用户突破3000万 #特朗普马斯克分歧