What has BTC done in the past, what is it doing now, and what might it do in the future?  

We’ll try to answer this question. But since BTC is not yet regulated, analyzing its price purely through technical analysis is often not sufficient.

While being decentralized seems like a positive thing, in reality, this also means BTC is frequently influenced by global powers and events. We’ve seen this in the past, and we’ll likely continue to see it in the future.

The most exciting thing about BTC not being regulated is the high price volatility. This attracts risk-tolerant investors while keeping more traditional and centralized institutions at bay.

Currently, BTC is fluctuating between $117,000 and $120,000. The first critical resistance is at $121,556, as I’ve mentioned before. Unless we see several daily closes above this level, a test of $100,000 remains likely. Our current primary support is $116,862. If BTC closes daily candles below this level, it could trigger further downside.

On the chart, the thick line shows the $123,868 level. If a drop is to occur, this level will likely be tested with a wick beforehand. I will explain the significance of $123,868 in the next part.

In this analysis, we’ll assume the technical data for BTC starts from 2012. In the previous post, we mentioned $123,868 — now we’ll explore what that level means.

When unexpected price swings happen, we often blame news or political statements. But in reality, major market prices are controlled by AI systems and exchange bots. If an asset is technically bound to reach a price, it will happen in one of two ways:

1. Through organic investor behavior that aligns with technical trends (a soft landing or rise),
2. Or through intervention by bots, which require a catalyst — a rumor, news, or announcement — to push the price sharply. This often results in fear and heavy losses for retail traders, but the price ends up where it was meant to be.

From 2012, we saw a pennant pattern that hit its target in 2018, followed by a drop. Then a cup pattern in 2020 reacted from the 0.618 Fibonacci level. A rising wedge followed, leading to a bearish market.

Now, the main goal is to reach the $123,868 target formed by the 2018–2020 cup structure. The price may wick up to this level and then drop to test $100,000.

BTC started a run from $25,000 to $74,000, formed a flag, and faked out to $48,888 before heading towards a target of $145,126. That 8,888 level hints at market psychology and energy manipulation.

The next key zone is again the $123,868 cup target. It will either break out with volume or get rejected and revisit the $100,000 liquidity zone.

What happens afterward?

The cup-and-handle pattern formed between 2021–2024 targets $267,722 — but I don’t expect to see that yet. First, the 1.618 Fibonacci level at $155,255 acts as a strong resistance, as it has in past cycles.

A rising wedge is also forming here, completing around $155,000. If BTC reverses from there, possible targets are $64,293 → $48,965 → $37,292. A deep correction is not necessary. Touching any major Fibonacci level (0.382–0.500–0.618) and bouncing will be enough for the pattern to validate.

Remember, this is my scenario. Let’s wait and see how much of it comes true — but keep these key levels in mind.