Latest prices, market analysis, and market dynamics for Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) as of August 1, 2025 (today):

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### 📉 **Latest price levels and market dynamics**
1. **Bitcoin (BTC)**
- **Current**: During the Asian session, it once fell below the **$115,000** key support.
- **Intraday Volatility**: After breaking below **$117,000** in the early morning, it accelerated downward, reaching a low of **$116,963**, with the 24-hour increase narrowing to **0.44%** (volatility significantly increased).

2. **Ethereum (ETH)**
- **Current Price**: **$3,691** (24-hour decline of **3.13%**), the morning session broke through the psychological barrier of **$3,700**, currently reported at **$3,699.25** (intraday decline of **2.35%**).
- **Contagion Effect**: Mainstream altcoins such as SOL and CRV have seen a general decline of **3%-11%**, with market sentiment turning cautious.

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### 📉 **Analysis of Downward Driving Factors**
1. **Macroeconomic policy impact**
- **Trump's New Tariff Policy**: The United States has announced additional tariffs on India (25%), Thailand (19%), South Africa (30%), Turkey (15%), etc., triggering global trade tensions and putting pressure on risk assets.
- **Strong Dollar**: The Dollar Index closed at **99.968** (+0.15%), suppressing cryptocurrency valuations.

2. **Technical Breakout Signal**
- **BTC**: Fell below the dynamic support of **$117,000** (the lower edge of the original triangle convergence), the next key support is at **$114,600** (200-day moving average); if there is a rebound, it needs to recover **$117,800** to ease the selling pressure.
- **ETH**: **$3,709** (Supertrend support) fell below, and short-term support has moved down to **$3,516** (Bollinger middle band); resistance level **$3,800** is the tipping point between bulls and bears.
- **Indicator Alert**：
- The MACD histogram of BTC has turned from positive to negative (**-325**), RSI has dropped to **62**, and momentum is weak.
- The RSI of ETH has pulled back after being overbought (**80.01**), with a net outflow of funds of **$137 million**, increasing selling pressure.

3. **Divergence in Institutional Behavior**
- **Sell Signal**: Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio has liquidated his shares, raising concerns about traditional capital withdrawal.
- **Holding Dynamics**: Coinbase increased its holdings by **2,509 BTC** in Q2, reaching a total of **11,776** (cost **$740 million**), providing some bottom support.

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### 🔍 **Key Events and Market Sentiment**
1. **Policy Implementation**: Hong Kong's "Stablecoin Ordinance" comes into effect today, with Bank of China Hong Kong, Standard Chartered, and others likely to apply for licenses. This is a long-term positive for compliance, but short-term liquidity is under pressure.
2. **Forecast Correction**:
- **BTC**: The AI model previously predicted an average of **$119,833** (+0.7%), but the actual value fell short of expectations due to tariff impacts; Grok's **$117,500** bearish prediction was closest to reality.
- **ETH**: 38% of traders originally bet **$4,000** (Polymarket data), now the overbought pullback and technical breakout have led to unmet expectations.
3. **On-chain risk**: Derivative open interest reaches **$34.1 billion** (historical high), and leverage liquidation may amplify volatility.

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### 💡 **Trading Strategy Suggestions**
| **Asset** | **Direction** | **Key Levels** | **Target/Stop Loss** |
|----------|----------------|---------------------------|----------------------------|
| BTC | **Short on Bounce** | Entry: $117,000 (Confirmation of Retracement)| Target: $114,600; Stop Loss: $118,000 |
| BTC | **Aggressive Long on Dip** | Entry: $114,600 (Strong Support) | Target: $116,500; Stop Loss: $113,800 |
| ETH | **Breakout to Long** | Entry: $3,800 (volume recovery) | Target: $3,940; Stop Loss: $3,750 |
| ETH | **Short on Break** | Entry: $3,516 (Effective Break) | Target: $3,300; Stop Loss: $3,580 |

> ⚠️ **Risk Warning**:
> - Volatility may surge during the European and American trading sessions (new regulations for stablecoins in Hong Kong + approaching FTX debt registration), light positions to avoid event disturbances.
> - ETH needs to pay attention to the support strength of **$3,516**. If on-chain whales increase their holdings (accumulating **1.28 million** in July), it can hedge some selling pressure.
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