According to the latest market dynamics, the global financial markets are expected to show the following trends in the coming days:
1. US stocks are under pressure: capital outflows have intensified (with $28 billion flowing out in a single week), the implementation of tariffs and concerns about economic slowdown are suppressing risk appetite, coupled with seasonal weakness (the "August curse"), short-term volatility may be amplified.
2. Resilience of Hong Kong and A-shares: Benefiting from policy support and expectations of overseas liquidity easing, Hong Kong stocks show a strong fluctuation; the mid-term performance of A-shares and the implementation of policies become the focus, with technology growth and "anti-involution" sectors likely to outperform.
3. Short-term rebound of the US dollar, differentiation among non-USD currencies: The rising expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut suppress the dollar, but tariff policies support its resilience; Asian currencies are boosted by a weak dollar and trade agreements, while the euro and yen remain under pressure.
4. Diversification of Commodity Structure:
◦ Crude Oil: With the end of OPEC+ production increase coupled with geopolitical risks, Brent crude may test the high of $98;
◦ Gold: Short-term fluctuations, central bank gold purchases and interest rate cut expectations support the long-term trend;
◦ Copper: Weak demand drags down prices, but energy transition demand may drive a rebound by the end of the year.
5. The bond market's hedging is heating up: U.S. Treasuries are supported by interest rate cut expectations and safe-haven demand; the Chinese bond market is suppressed by improved risk appetite, and interest rate bonds may continue to adjust.
Risk warning: The pace of the Federal Reserve's policy shift, new developments in China-U.S. trade, and geopolitical conflicts are the core variables.
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According to the latest market dynamics, the global financial markets are expected to show the following trends in the coming days:
1. US stocks are under pressure: capital outflows have intensified (with $28 billion flowing out in a single week), the implementation of tariffs and concerns about economic slowdown are suppressing risk appetite, coupled with seasonal weakness (the "August curse"), short-term volatility may be amplified.
2. Resilience of Hong Kong and A-shares: Benefiting from policy support and expectations of overseas liquidity easing, Hong Kong stocks show a strong fluctuation; the mid-term performance of A-shares and the implementation of policies become the focus, with technology growth and "anti-involution" sectors likely to outperform.
3. Short-term rebound of the US dollar, differentiation among non-USD currencies: The rising expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut suppress the dollar, but tariff policies support its resilience; Asian currencies are boosted by a weak dollar and trade agreements, while the euro and yen remain under pressure.
4. Diversification of Commodity Structure:
◦ Crude Oil: With the end of OPEC+ production increase coupled with geopolitical risks, Brent crude may test the high of $98;
◦ Gold: Short-term fluctuations, central bank gold purchases and interest rate cut expectations support the long-term trend;
◦ Copper: Weak demand drags down prices, but energy transition demand may drive a rebound by the end of the year.
5. The bond market's hedging is heating up: U.S. Treasuries are supported by interest rate cut expectations and safe-haven demand; the Chinese bond market is suppressed by improved risk appetite, and interest rate bonds may continue to adjust.
Risk warning: The pace of the Federal Reserve's policy shift, new developments in China-U.S. trade, and geopolitical conflicts are the core variables.