#August Market Prediction

The DVOL index of Bitcoin, which tracks volatility, is at historically low levels. Only 2.6% of days have had lower values, indicating extreme complacency in the market. Investors are not hedging against potential downturns. This could lead to significant price movements if unforeseen events trigger volatility.
DVOL measures expected price fluctuations over the next month. Current low levels indicate traders' complacency. However, this calm may be short-lived, as volatility shocks often follow periods of overconfidence. If an unexpected market event occurs, Bitcoin may experience sharp price swings, catching investors off guard.
The overall macro momentum of BTC shows noticeable changes in investor behavior. The metric for the change in the net position of HODLers has slowed down, indicating a decrease in the activity of long-term holders (LTH). Although at the beginning of the month they began to accumulate Bitcoin, this trend has halted due to market uncertainty.
Despite the lack of new purchases, the absence of sales indicates optimism among holders. They are waiting for a clearer market direction before taking the next step. This shows that LTH are cautious but expect that any surge in volatility could lead to a price increase, so they maintain their positions.
The price of Bitcoin has risen over the month, but in the last 24 hours, the momentum has weakened, and BTC has fallen to $117,305. This decline occurred as the price dropped below the ascending trend line, signaling a shift in market sentiment.

If investors hold their positions during the expected volatility, Bitcoin could stabilize above $117,000. This would pave the way for a possible move towards $120,000. Turning this level into support would allow the price to continue its rise. However, if investors start selling in response to the volatility, the cryptocurrency could decline significantly. A breach of the support level at $115,000 would clear the way to $112,526. This would negate the gains of August and cancel the bullish forecast.