On August 20, Delphi Digital's market research institute issued a major warning: in the coming weeks, the U.S. Treasury will launch a general account (TGA) supplementary plan, withdrawing approximately $500 to $600 billion in cash from the market over the next two months. While this operation may seem ordinary at first glance, the current market is in the most fragile liquidity environment it has seen in the past decade, with hidden risks.

Looking back at 2023, the $550 billion TGA supplement was able to land smoothly thanks to three major "buffers"—over $2 trillion in Federal Reserve reverse repo tools, healthy bank reserves, and strong overseas demand for U.S. Treasuries. However, now these "safety nets" have vanished: the Federal Reserve continues to consume liquidity through quantitative tightening (QT), reverse repo amounts are nearly depleted, banks are constrained by asset losses and capital rules, and overseas buyers from China to Japan are withdrawing from the U.S. Treasury market. This means that every dollar raised by the Treasury this fall will be directly "hard extracted" from the liquidity of the active market.

For the crypto market, when liquidity tightens, the decline of high beta tokens is often magnified. If the supply of stablecoins contracts during the TGA supplement period, ETH and other high-risk assets may fall harder than BTC, unless ETFs or corporate treasuries can bring in structural capital inflows. In such a weak liquidity environment, the importance of position management and capital rotation across the risk curve is more pronounced than ever.

The key variable lies in stablecoins: if stablecoins expand synchronously, the impact brought by TGA supplementation may be better absorbed by the crypto market; however, once stablecoins contract, the effects of liquidity withdrawal will be transmitted to the entire market more quickly and violently. #流动性