Weekly Crypto & Market Outlook  

Before analyzing the crypto markets, it is useful to first look at the US stock markets and the Dollar Index.

1. Dollar Index (DXY): We see a reaction at the bottom of the yellow channel line dating back to 2000. This area also coincides with the 0.382 Fibonacci level around 97.663. A strong breakdown below the channel could trigger a move toward the 86 level. However, looking at the maroon channel, price previously rose from 90, peaked near 110, then formed a flag structure. The current test at the channel bottom is also the 4th touch of this flag. A breakout to the upside could push price back toward the top of the yellow channel.
2. S&P 500: Price is squeezed in a zone where the 6500 Fibonacci level meets a long-term yellow trendline. The 6152 breakout has not yet been retested. Looking at the last 5 weekly candles and RSI, we see cooling in momentum. The key question is whether this cooling will allow consolidation and a further rise.
3. Nasdaq (NDX): Over 25 years, Nasdaq has risen 30x, representing the top 100 AI and tech-focused companies (adjusted over time). Past crashes eliminated some firms, replaced by stronger ones. This shows corporate reforms and resilience, but the depth and destructive impact of past crashes cannot be ignored. Currently, no major issues until the 28,640 level.
4. BTC Dominance: A monthly close below 62.30 would trigger acceleration in altcoins. For August, dominance may move between 60.00–63.50. The real altcoin run is expected around September. Ethereum’s early rally pulled dominance lower, but the real altcoin season has not yet begun. A close below 60.34 this month would confirm bearish momentum continuing into September.
5. BTC CME Futures: Fed’s increased probability of rate cuts and recent statements caused a strong bullish candle, leaving a $2,900 gap above. We will later discuss why BTC didn’t hold its gains despite this.
6. Ethereum (ETH): Despite hitting new ATHs, ETH has failed to close weekly candles above resistance and faced strong selling. The $5,000 psychological barrier adds pressure. Key support lies at $3,922–4,062; ETH must not close below this. RSI shows healthy cooling toward $3,800 levels, suggesting shakeouts are constructive.
7. ETH/BTC Pair: ETH is gaining against BTC as liquidity from 2019 levels is taken. The white trendline has been broken and retested. If ETH sustains moves inside the maroon channel starting at 0.05118, it may target the 0.06413 top. A close above resistance could open the path to 0.1, especially with volume.
8. BTC Weekly: As mentioned before, BTC needed to capture 123,868 to ensure a healthy rise. The worst-case scenario is another test of the rising wedge support.
9. BTC Daily: After testing 111,855 and breaking 123,868, BTC must remain below 111,855 for sustainable growth. A daily close below 109,609 risks a drop to $100,000 or lower. RSI shows buyers are still active despite dips. Failure to close above 116,862 (after Fed news) signals the market is not yet ready for a breakout.