[2025 Halving bull run enters mid to late stage: The rhythm of the BTC Halving cycle is shifting towards structural rotation]

1. BTC: The rise after the Halving has been realized, and it is currently in the process of building a top.

Market Review: BTC has risen over 80% since the Halving in April 2024, quickly surged to 120,000 after breaking the previous high of 69,000 in March 2025, and then fluctuated downward, currently hovering around 109,000.

Chart signals: The RSI on the daily chart has repeatedly fallen below 50, and the MACD death cross continues to diverge. In the short term, it is in a weak recovery and has not yet confirmed a bottom.

Technical tipping point: The $100,000 mark is a psychological defense line for the market and a key indicator of whether the "Halving-driven logic" will continue.

🔍 Conclusion of the assessment:
BTC is likely to have entered the "platform top oscillation" phase at a high point, and whether it will make a second peak depends on two major variables:
(1) Whether the incremental funds from institutions (ETF holdings, sovereign fund entry) can sustain.
(2) Whether macro risks (interest rate cuts materializing, turmoil in the US stock market) trigger a market shift.

2. ETH: Short-term weakness, but the long-term trend has not changed.

Trend characteristics: ETH broke through the 2021 high first, leading the entire market from May to July, but has recently retraced from its high, indicating a weakening upward momentum.

Technical signals: MACD is starting to weaken, the daily RSI is still in the neutral to upper range. If it cannot quickly recover the 4600~4700 area in the short term, it may fall into a range-bound fluctuation.

Underlying logic: ETH holds long-term value supported by ETF expectations and the expansion of the L2 ecosystem, but the benefits have largely been priced in already.

🔍 Conclusion of the analysis:
ETH has completed the "valuation reshaping + faith strengthening" phase, and may next enter a fluctuating trend that is not in sync with BTC, relying more on on-chain activity and the continuous expansion of L2/modular direction.

3. SOL: A structural rebound market is starting.

Market structure: Unlike BTC/ETH, SOL has not yet broken through its historical high and is currently oscillating within the $200 to $240 range below the 2021 peak.

Technical signals: The daily three moving averages are in a bullish arrangement, MACD golden cross is upward, and RSI remains strong, indicating that the upward trend is relatively healthy.

Capital flow characteristics: Emerging narratives such as NFT, GameFi, and DePIN are landing on Solana in turn, driving a rapid rebound in on-chain TVL and trading activity.

🔍 Conclusion of the analysis:
SOL is likely taking on the role of "structural rotation and supplementary rise" in this cycle. If BTC/ETH remains sideways, its momentum to reach new highs will be even stronger.

4. Indicators of structural rotation: the bull market is no longer driven by a single factor.

Combining charts and market behavior, there are several "new trends" worth noting:

(1) Sector rotation is accelerating:

The accelerated capital rotation rhythm from BTC → ETH → SOL / TRX indicates that the overall market is at a high level but lacks a unified direction, and speculative funds tend to "look for rotation low points."

(2) ETH and BTC no longer resonate:

The synchronization between ETH and BTC decreased after the Halving, indicating that the momentum of the bull run is no longer driven by a single factor, but is a composite logic influenced by both on-chain ecology and macro events.

(3) The TRX stablecoin ecosystem is quietly expanding:

Although the price performance has been moderate, the on-chain circulation of stablecoins for TRX has been steadily expanding recently, and the DeFi base has strengthened, indicating that its "settlement network" attribute has gained recognition in this cycle, resulting in a more defensive trend.

5. What possible paths may the market evolve into next?

🔹 Path One: Top Formation → Sideways Consolidation → Sector Rotation (Most Likely)
BTC has been oscillating around the 100,000 to 110,000 range for a long time, major coins are stagnant, while the rotation and rebound of sectors such as SOL, TRX, AI, and RWA have become the main focus.

Strategy suggestion: Reduce leverage, avoid chasing highs, focus on structural opportunities, and choose narrative tracks with "room for growth" to participate in rotation.

🔹 Path Two: Emotional Outburst → New Peak → Full Acceleration (Medium Probability)
If BTC can break through 120,000 strongly and drive ETH to a new high, the market may enter the final wave of "FOMO main rise phase," extending the bull run climax for several weeks to two months.
Strategy advice: Set a take-profit line, flexibly adjust your positions, retain a base position to participate, but do not blindly chase highs.

🔹 Path Three: Weak Downtrend → High-level Retracement → Overall Cooldown (Low probability but high impact)

If BTC breaks through the key support of 100,000, combined with macro risks or policy uncertainty, the market may quickly switch to a "retracement-defensive" mode, killing valuations and liquidity.

Strategic advice: Quickly exit short-term speculative positions and only retain long-term core holdings, waiting for confirmation of a new market structure.

6. Conclusion: The bull run is not over, but the strategy needs to change.

The bull run of 2025 has not ended, but the pace has quietly changed. The market boost brought by the Bitcoin Halving has entered the realization period, and the next core keyword is:

Rotation, structure, differentiation, realization, caution.

If you are a speculator, now is the time to defend.
If you are a long-term thinker, now is the best window for structural reorganization and value swapping.
The final dance of the bull run may not belong to BTC, but to those "laggards" that still have room to grow.