[2025 Halving bull run enters the later stage: The rhythm of the BTC Halving cycle is shifting towards structural rotation]

1. BTC: The increase after the Halving has been realized, and it is currently in the process of building a top.

Market Review: BTC has risen over 80% since the Halving in April 2024, quickly surging to 120,000 after breaking the previous high of 69,000 in March 2025, followed by a period of consolidation and currently hovering around 109,000.

Chart signals: The RSI has repeatedly fallen below 50 on the daily chart, and the MACD death cross continues to diverge. The short-term is in a weak recovery, and a stop in the decline has not yet been confirmed.

Technical Critical Point: The $100,000 threshold is a psychological defense line for the market and a key indicator of whether the "Halving-driven logic" will continue in this round.

🔍 Conclusion of the analysis:
BTC is very likely to have entered the "platform top oscillation" phase at a high level, and whether it makes a second peak depends on two major variables:
(1) Whether the incremental institutional funds (ETF holdings, sovereign funds entering the market) can sustain.
(2) Whether macro risks (interest rate cuts realized, fluctuations in the US stock market) trigger a market shift.

2. ETH: Short-term weakness, but the long-term trend has not changed.

Trend characteristics: ETH was the first to break through the 2021 high, leading the entire period from May to July, but has recently retraced from its highs, indicating a weakening of upward momentum.

Technical signals: MACD is starting to weaken, daily RSI is still in the neutral to upper range. If it cannot quickly recover the 4600~4700 range in the short term, it may fall into a range-bound fluctuation.

Underlying logic: ETH has long-term value supported by ETF expectations and the expansion of the L2 ecosystem, but the benefits have basically been priced in ahead of time.

🔍 Conclusion of the analysis:
ETH has completed the "valuation reshaping + belief strengthening" phase, and may next enter a volatile trend that is not in sync with BTC, relying more on on-chain activity and the continued expansion of L2/modular directions.

3. SOL: A structural rebound market is starting.

Market Structure: Unlike BTC/ETH, SOL has not yet broken through its historical high and is currently fluctuating in the range of $200 to $240 below the peak in 2021.

Technical signals: The daily three moving averages are in a bullish arrangement, MACD has a golden cross moving upwards, and RSI maintains strong momentum, indicating a relatively healthy upward trend.

Capital flow characteristics: Emerging narratives such as NFT, GameFi, and DePIN have successively landed on Solana, driving a rapid recovery in on-chain TVL and trading activity.

🔍 Conclusion of the analysis:
SOL is likely taking on the role of "structural rotation and supplementary rise" in this cycle. If BTC/ETH remains range-bound, the momentum for breaking new highs will be even stronger.

4. The sign of structural rotation: the bull run is no longer driven by a single factor.

Combining charts and market behavior, there are several "new trends" worth noting:

(1) The rotation of sector heat is accelerating:

The accelerated capital rotation rhythm from BTC → ETH → SOL / TRX indicates that the market as a whole is at a high level but lacks a unified direction, with speculative funds tending to "look for rotation low points."

(2) ETH and BTC no longer resonate:

The synchronization between ETH and BTC decreased after the Halving, indicating that the momentum of the bull run is no longer driven by a single factor, but rather by a complex logic influenced by both on-chain ecosystems and macro events.

(3) The TRX stablecoin ecosystem is quietly expanding:

Although the price performance is moderate, the on-chain circulation of stablecoins for TRX has been steadily expanding recently, and the DeFi base has strengthened, indicating that its "settlement network" attribute has gained recognition in this cycle, making the trend more defensive.

V. What possible paths might the market evolve into next?

🔹 Path One: Top Build → Sideways Consolidation → Sector Rotation (Most Likely)
BTC has been oscillating around the range of 100,000 to 110,000 for a long time, mainstream coins are stagnant, and sectors such as SOL, TRX, AI, and RWA are rotating to catch up as the main theme.

Strategy suggestion: Reduce leverage, avoid chasing highs, focus on structural opportunities, and choose narrative tracks with "room for growth" to participate in rotation.

🔹 Path Two: Emotional Outburst → Reaching New Heights → Full Acceleration (Medium Probability)
If BTC can strongly break through 120,000 and drive ETH to a new high, the market may enter the final wave of "FOMO main rising phase," extending the bull run peak for several weeks to two months.
Strategy advice: Set a take-profit line, flexibly add or reduce positions, keep a base position to participate, but do not blindly chase highs.

🔹 Path Three: Weak Downward → High-level Retracement → Overall Cooling (Low Probability but High Impact)

If BTC falls below the key support of 100,000, combined with macro risks or policy uncertainties, the market may quickly switch to a "retracement-defensive" mode, killing valuations and liquidity.

Strategy suggestion: Quickly exit short-term speculative positions, only retain long-term positions, and wait for the confirmation of a new round of market structure.

6. Summary: The bull run is not dead, but the strategy needs to change.

The bull run of 2025 has not ended, but the pace has quietly changed. The market boost brought by the BTC Halving has entered the realization period, and the next core keywords are:

Rotation, structure, differentiation, realization, caution.

If you are a speculator, now is the time to defend.
If you are a long-term thinker, now is the best window for structural reorganization and value swapping.
The last dance of the bull run may not belong to BTC, but to those "catch-up players" who still have room.