📣[Emergency Alert: Tonight's CPI data is coming, and the market may experience severe fluctuations!| Crypto Voyager Flying Fish]

💡 Core Events:
At 20:30 Beijing time tonight, the United States will release the August CPI (Consumer Price Index) data. This is the last key inflation report before the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision in September, and it is expected to trigger significant fluctuations in global markets.

📊 Market Expectations and Impact:
• Expected value: The market generally predicts that the CPI in August will rise by 2.9% year-on-year (previous value 2.7%), and the core CPI (excluding food and energy) will rise by 3.1% year-on-year (unchanged from the previous value). Both figures are well above the Federal Reserve's target of 2%.

• Impact of the Federal Reserve's policies: Although the market believes that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points on September 17 is almost a done deal (with a probability of over 90%), tonight's CPI data will significantly affect its interest rate path expectations for the October and December meetings. If inflation rises unexpectedly, it may disrupt the subsequent easing pace.

• Impact on the cryptocurrency market: The cryptocurrency market is highly sensitive to macro data and liquidity expectations. If the data exceeds expectations (hawkish), it may strengthen the "higher for longer" interest rate stance, suppressing risk asset prices; if the data falls below expectations (dovish), it may solidify interest rate cut expectations, benefiting risk assets.

⚡ Market Fluctuation Prediction:
The options market bets that the S&P 500 index may experience a ±0.7% Fluctuation after the data is released. The volatility in the cryptocurrency market is usually higher, and it would not be surprising to see short-term sharp fluctuations of over 3%-5% in the coin market tonight, referencing Bitcoin's rise of 2.5% followed by a pullback when the March CPI was announced.

🛡️ Flying Fish Operation Suggestions:
1. Position Management: Try to maintain a light position or go short before data is released to avoid uncertainty. Be sure to check and set stop-loss orders to prevent extreme market conditions from causing liquidation.
2. Stay on the sidelines: After data is released, there is usually a violent and repeated "sweep" market, avoid chasing highs and selling lows at the first moment. Wait for market sentiment to stabilize and a clear direction before looking for opportunities.
3. Focus on core indicators: Pay special attention to core CPI month-on-month (monthly rate):
◦ >0.4% ( significant bearish ): may trigger a significant pullback, proceed with caution.

◦ 0.3%-0.35% ( meets expectations ): Fluctuation is relatively mild but still has some repetition.

◦ <0.25% ( significant bullish ): may stimulate the rise of risk assets.

4. Go with the flow: After the data is released, do not be stubborn; strictly follow the actual market trends in your operations.

💎 Summary:
Tonight will be a moment of high risk and high potential returns. For most investors, protecting the principal is the top priority. Observe more and act less, patiently waiting for the trend opportunities after the dust settles.

CPI #美联储 Macroeconomics #交易策略 Risk Management

(Disclaimer: The above content is for market information interpretation and sharing only, and does not constitute any investment advice!)