🌕 #美联储降息预期升温 #Gate广场创作点亮中秋 🌕

Brothers, the moment that the market has been waiting for so long is finally here! The Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting is undoubtedly the absolute focus of the global financial market this week, and for us in the crypto world, it could be an important turning point in the market. I would like to share my views as well:
1️⃣ My view on this rate cut: 25 basis points as the "floor" and 50 basis points as the "surprise".
The market is now pricing in nearly 100% for a 25 basis point rate cut, which can be seen as the Federal Reserve's "standard operation." However, I believe that the possibility of a 50 basis point cut cannot be completely ruled out. Recent economic data (such as a mild slowdown in employment and inflation) has provided the Federal Reserve with greater maneuvering space. If it really is a 50 basis point cut, it would be a "shot in the arm" for the market, undoubtedly triggering a massive buying spree in risk assets. However, from a rational perspective, Powell may be more inclined to adopt a cautious 25 basis points and pave the way for subsequent rate cuts; attitude is more important than magnitude.
2️⃣ Prediction of the short-term impact of interest rate cuts on BTC, ETH, and altcoins
· Bitcoin (BTC): As digital gold and the leader of the market, BTC will be most sensitive to interest rate cuts. A rate cut directly implies an improvement in expectations for dollar liquidity, and the risk appetite of institutional and large funds will quickly rebound. In the short term, BTC is likely to be the first to break through the recent fluctuation range, testing or even impacting previous highs. It is the barometer for the entire market.
· Ethereum (ETH): ETH will closely follow the pace of BTC, but its momentum also comes from the development of its ecosystem. The favorable effects of interest rate cuts will directly reduce the funding costs of on-chain activities such as DeFi, which is a double benefit for ETH. In the short term, the ETH/BTC exchange rate may remain stable or strengthen slightly.
· Altcoins: Once BTC and ETH open up the upward space, market sentiment will completely shift to FOMO, and the Altseason is likely to begin. Liquidity will flood out of mainstream coins and pour into those small and mid-cap tokens with narratives and potential. Volatility will sharply increase, presenting many opportunities but also significant risks.
3️⃣ Combining history: Will this be the starting gun for the next bull market?
Looking back at 2019, the Federal Reserve also shifted from a rate hike cycle to a rate cut cycle, which directly triggered a strong rebound in BTC from over $3,000 to $14,000. History does not simply repeat itself but it does rhyme. This rate cut is significant, as it marks the official shift of global macro monetary policy towards easing.
I believe that this interest rate cut is likely to become one of the key catalysts for the next major market trend. It is not just about lowering the cost of capital; more importantly, it has changed the market's "psychological expectations" from a prior state of tightening panic to one of easing optimism. This shift in expectations is crucial for the cryptocurrency market, which relies on confidence and liquidity.
In summary: Whether it's 25 basis points or 50 basis points, the direction of the rate cut has already been determined. For us, the key is to lay out our positions in advance, holding onto core assets (BTC/ETH), while leaving some funds available for the potential explosion of altcoins. It's important to pay attention to whether Powell's remarks during the press conference are "dovish" or "hawkish," as this will determine the height and sustainability of this market trend.