📈 ​​【Matrixport: The new round of Bitcoin rising momentum is gradually forming | Crypto Navigator Flying Fish Interpretation】​​

Matrixport's latest weekly report indicates that despite short-term market uncertainties, the momentum for a new round of Bitcoin pump is gradually building. The report analyzes multiple dimensions including macroeconomic resilience, inflation outlook, market structure, and potential risks, suggesting that the resonance of multiple favorable factors may drive the continuation of Bitcoin's market trend.
🔍 1. Core Viewpoint: Rising Momentum is Accumulating Matrixport believes that while the core driving factors of the next round of Bitcoin market are not yet fully clear, positive signals are emerging. The resilience shown by the US economy, the improvement in the credit environment, and the enhancement of corporate efficiency collectively support risk assets. Their analysis model predicts that inflation is expected to fall below 2.0% in the coming quarters, which will provide space for the Federal Reserve to extend the easing cycle, thus benefiting assets like Bitcoin.
💹 2. The main driving forces supporting the rise Matrixport's analysis points out the following positive factors:
Improvement in the macroeconomic environment:
Credit spread narrows: The US credit spread continues to narrow, improving the financing environment, which historically has been beneficial for Bitcoin. This lowers the refinancing costs for companies and alleviates some of the pressure brought by tariff shocks.
Liquidity Injection and Fiscal Expansion: The U.S. market is entering a new round of liquidity release cycle, and structural funding support may drive Bitcoin and risk assets to continue their upward trend. Since the "Great Beautiful Act" raised the debt ceiling by $5 trillion, the Treasury has rapidly net issued a large amount of government bonds, coinciding with Bitcoin starting a new round of price rise.
Enterprise Activities and AI Empowerment: Companies are accelerating the introduction of artificial intelligence to enhance operational efficiency, which also provides additional support for risk assets.
Inflation Expectations and Monetary Policy Shift:
Matrixport's model shows that inflation will gradually fall back to the Federal Reserve's target range of 2%, and volatility is converging, which may provide more room for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Although the current inflation rate is still above the target, in the context of continuously declining energy prices and falling housing costs, the likelihood of it maintaining above 3.0% in the long term is low.
This judgment has certain discrepancies with the mainstream market expectations, and there are widespread concerns that fiscal injections and de-globalization may cause inflation to remain high for a longer time.
Funding structure and market demand:
Spot ETF continues to see inflows: Bitcoin spot ETF has recently experienced a large-scale capital inflow, with cumulative net inflows surpassing $40 billion, nearing historical highs. More importantly, the buying structure has shown positive changes— the proportion of long-term holding funds has increased, while the proportion of arbitrage trading funds has decreased. The market is shifting from short-term speculation to medium- and long-term allocation, which provides more solid support for the price.
Corporate Continuous Allocation: Corporate buyers represented by MicroStrategy continue to buy and hold Bitcoin for the long term, further reducing the circulating supply in the market.
⚠️ 3. Potential Risks and Challenges Although the trend is positive, Matrixport also highlights the risk points that need to be monitored in the future:
The risk of repeated inflation: One of the core issues facing Bitcoin currently is whether the repricing of U.S. economic growth expectations will trigger a resurgence in actual volatility. If inflation fails to decline as expected, but instead remains at a high level due to fiscal injections and de-globalization, it may constrain the space for monetary policy easing, thereby affecting market sentiment.
Market Structure and Momentum Divergence: Matrixport has pointed out that while Bitcoin reached a historic high, its overall momentum appeared particularly weak, with some key indicators showing significant divergence. The market has recently entered an adjustment phase, with Bitcoin's momentum weakening and both capital flow and trading enthusiasm cooling down. Trading volume has shrunk, and funding rates remain low, leading to a loosening market structure.
Short-term technical and sentiment analysis: In the very short term, the oversold stochastic indicators may suggest the possibility of a technical rebound, but there are still doubts about other sustainability, and prices may continue to consolidate sideways. Matrixport also indicated in July that the selling pressure from early investors taking profits was rising, and that summer consolidation was the most likely scenario at that time.
📊 4. Institutional Perspective: Long-term Price Predictions Multiple institutions hold an optimistic view on the long-term prospects of Bitcoin, although the specific predicted values vary.
Matrixport
It may reach 160,000 USD in 2025.
The continued demand for Bitcoin ETFs, favorable macroeconomic trends, and the expanding global liquidity pool.
Standard Chartered Bank
reach $200,000 by the end of 2025
Institutional investment continues to maintain or exceed the pace of 2024, with pension funds possibly allocating through ETFs.
Galaxy Digital
In the fourth quarter of 2025, it will reach $185,000.
The adoption by institutions, enterprises, and national agencies will drive the pump of Bitcoin.
CoinShares
It may reach 80,000 or 150,000 USD in 2025.
It depends on whether Trump's pro-encryption policies can be realized and whether the doubts about their implementation will trigger a market correction.
💎 5. Summary and Outlook Based on the analysis of Matrixport's report, the momentum for the new round of Bitcoin rise is indeed gradually forming, mainly due to the resilience of the macro economy, improvement in the credit environment, expectations of falling inflation, and the continued allocation demand from institutions.
However, investors also need to be aware of the risks of repeated inflation and short-term market fluctuations. The trend of Bitcoin is not smooth sailing, and there may be consolidations and pullbacks during this period.
For investors:
Long-term investors: You can pay attention to changes in the macroeconomic cycle and the long-term allocation trends of institutions, and consider phased layouts when the market adjusts due to short-term uncertainties.
Short-term traders: need to closely monitor short-term indicators such as inflation data, Federal Reserve policy signals, and market funding rates, be wary of volatility risks, and manage positions well.
Always remember: the market has risks, and investment requires caution. The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.
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I hope the above interpretation can help you!