📉 【Single-day capital outflow exceeds $470 million! Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs experience large-scale net outflow | Market sentiment is cautious】

According to monitoring data from multiple institutions, on September 23, the United States experienced significant synchronized capital outflows from Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs, with total outflows exceeding $470 million. This reflects a cautious defensive stance taken by investors in the face of macroeconomic uncertainty.

🔍 1. Core Data Overview
Bitcoin ETF (10 items):
A total net outflow of 3,211 BTC, valued at approximately $363 million based on the price at that time.
This is the largest single-day outflow so far this month, ending two consecutive days of inflows.
Ethereum ETF (9 funds):
A total net outflow of 25,851 ETH, valued at approximately 108 million USD.
This is the first outflow after two consecutive days of inflow.
🤔 2. Why has there been a significant outflow of funds?
This capital outflow is not an isolated event, and its main triggers include:

Uncertainty in Fed Policy Expectations: The market is focused on the upcoming speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Recently, there has been a divergence among Fed officials on whether a faster rate cut is needed, with new board member Stephen Miran being the only one supporting a 50 basis point cut, while Powell has previously stated that there is no rush for a faster rate cut. This uncertainty has intensified the market's wait-and-see sentiment.
Risk aversion sentiment rises: After the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points in September, gold prices continued to hit new highs, but investors were selling off cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin. This indicates that in the face of macroeconomic uncertainty, the "safe haven" properties of cryptocurrencies are being challenged, and investors are more inclined to turn to traditional safe haven assets.
Technical adjustments and profit-taking: The cryptocurrency market has experienced a period of rising, and some investors may choose to cash out profits at this time, which has intensified the outflow of funds.
🏢 3. Who are the main outflow parties?
The outflow of funds shows a highly centralized characteristic, with major products becoming the main force of outflow:

Bitcoin ETF: Fidelity's FBTC is the absolute leader in outflows, with a single-day outflow of 2,463 BTC (worth approximately $276.7 million). Additionally, ARKB from Ark Invest and GBTC from Grayscale also saw outflows of $52.3 million and $24.6 million, respectively.
Ethereum ETF: Similarly, led by Fidelity's FETH, there was a net outflow of 7,986 ETH (worth approximately 33.1 million USD). Bitwise's ETHW and BlackRock's ETHA also saw outflows of 22.3 million USD and 15.1 million USD, respectively.
🌐 4. Current Market Background and Impact
The strengthening of the US dollar and the rise in US bond yields: The US dollar index (DXY) is at 97.40, and the yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond remains around 4.15%. This generally increases the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets (such as Bitcoin), putting pressure on cryptocurrency prices.
Price Under Pressure: Under the pressure of market sentiment, Bitcoin's price is consolidating around $113,000, with the market generally expecting it to possibly break below the $110,000 mark. Meanwhile, Ethereum's price is hovering near the key support level of $4,200.
Long-term Belief and Short-term Volatility: Despite short-term capital outflows, on-chain data shows that miners are still continuously investing in the Bitcoin network, and the hash rate remains slightly below historical highs, indicating that long-term confidence in Bitcoin still exists. However, the interaction between investors and exchanges has decreased, and trading volume has shrunk, indicating a weakening of short-term interest.
💎 Summary and Outlook
The large-scale outflow of funds from Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs is a direct reflection of the market adopting a defensive stance ahead of significant macro events (such as the Federal Reserve Chairman's speech). It indicates that the crypto market has deeply integrated with the global traditional financial market and is highly sensitive to changes in macroeconomic policies, especially interest rate policies.

In the short term, market sentiment and capital flows will continue to be influenced by the content of Powell's speech. If he releases more explicit dovish (easing) signals, it may alleviate market concerns; if the stance is more hawkish (tightening), it may further exacerbate volatility.

In the long term, the ETF still holds long-term value as a compliant channel for institutional funds to enter the market. However, such volatility also reminds investors that the cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, requiring close attention to macro trends and proper risk management.

#比特币ETF Ethereum ETF #资金流出 Federal Reserve #宏观经济 cryptocurrency

(The above analysis is based on public data and does not constitute any investment advice.)