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📉 Assessing the Risk of BTC Dropping to 105k or 98k

🔍 In-Depth Research – September 23, 2025

⚠️ Risk 105k: high (~60-70% in the next 1-2 weeks).
⚠️ Risk 98k: lower than (~30-40%), but still possible if there is a negative catalyst.
📈 Long term (Q4/2025): still bullish, target 120k–150k+, but need to be cautious in the short term.

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1️⃣ Current Price Situation & Momentum
• 💰 BTC Price (23/9): 112.5k–113k USD, slight increase +0.1–0.23% after defending 112k.
• 📉 Pullback last week: -2.06%, high volatility (1.58%).
• 🛡️ Important support: 112k. If broken, strong downside.
• 📊 Momentum: September +8% ( the best since 2012) but volume decreased, 284M USD liquidated ( mostly long).

👉 Comment: The price is in the "battleground" zone of 110k–113k, with the risk of sliding down to the lower support.

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2️⃣ Technical Analysis – Support & Downside

📊 Indicators: RSI ~45 (neutral), MACD bearish divergence → risk of pullback.

🏷️ Price Level Role Test Probability 📌 Reason
113k–117k 🔺 Resistance (20-day EMA) High (80%) Rejected 2 times, hard to break
109k–111k ⚠️ Weak support Tested (100%) Broke at the beginning of September
105k–106k 🔑 Strong support (EMA 50/100) High (60–70%) Pivotal, breach = cascade
100k–103k 🔑 Psychological support (EMA 200) TB (40–50%) High OI
98k–100k 🛑 Weak support (July low) Low (30–40%) Only if macro shock

👉 Comment: 105k = line in the sand. A breach will open the way to 98k–100k.

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3️⃣ On-chain & Market Data
• 🟠 LTH net sell: -241k BTC (~26B USD), largest in 2025.
• 🐋 Whales sold an additional 115k BTC, ETF net outflow of 363M USD last week.
• 📉 OI around 110k–113k: ~40B USD, strong liquidation cluster at 105k (500–800M).

👉 Comment: Selling pressure from holders/institutions is at its maximum, the risk of a flush at 105k is high.

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4️⃣ Sentiment & Expert Opinions
• 🐻 Bearish short-term (~60%): many traders predict a dip of 94k–100k.
• 🐂 Long-term bullish (~80%): most still maintain a target of 150k+ in Q4.
• 📢 Changelly: min 113k November.
• 📢 FinanceMagnates: target 100k–104k, extreme 78k–95k.

👉 Comment: Sentiment "red September" → the market agrees on a risk of 105k; 98k is the worst-case.

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5️⃣ Macroeconomic Factors & Catalyst

🔻 Bearish:
• Fed holds interest rates, recession fear 2026.
• ETF approvals are slow.

🔺 Bullish:
• Rate cuts probability 97% → cash flow risk assets.
• The halving effect 2024 (lagged pump Q4).
• Institutional AUM 146B USD remains.

👉 Comment: Short-term bearish, but rate cuts may cap downside at 105k and open pump in Q4.

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✅ Conclusion & Advice
• 📉 Short-term:
• Stop-loss <105k if long.
• Accumulate gradually if it dips to 100k–105k.
• 📊 Follow:
• OI/funding on Coinglass.
• BTC dominance, ETF flows.

📌 Summary:
• Risk 105k = high, base case short-term.
• Risk 98k = low, only during liquidation cascade/macro shock.
• Long-term: bullish, buy-the-dip opportunity.