2025-10-01 06:10:01

Oh,

View Original

币莹莹6

2025-09-30 14:28:19

The U.S. government shutdown is affecting the entire financial market, and a storm is about to arrive.

First, there have been two instances of "government shutdown" in the United States in history. In 2013, the shutdown lasted for 16 days and Bitcoin surged by 14%. In 2018, the shutdown lasted for 35 days from late 2018 to early 2019, and Bitcoin dropped by 6%.

So is Bitcoin facing an upward opportunity or a pullback risk this time? Firstly, this week Cook "called" for Bitcoin and Ethereum to rise against the trend, but today it is once again under pressure, giving back most of its gains. Firstly, regarding the potential U.S. government shutdown, if Congress fails to reach a spending agreement by September 30, the government may shut down on October 1, leading to delays in the release of key economic data such as the non-farm payroll report, which will affect Bitcoin traders' predictions for a Federal Reserve rate cut and increase short-term market volatility.

The expectation of interest rate cuts is favorable for risk assets and may provide liquidity support for Bitcoin. However, concerns about bubbles and political risks may exacerbate short-term volatility, making significant "drop and rebound" fluctuations in Bitcoin prices more likely.

For example, on September 25, affected by factors such as the potential government shutdown in the United States, the price of Bitcoin fell by about 4%, leading a sell-off in the cryptocurrency market. Therefore, if the shutdown continues, Bitcoin may continue to decline in the short term.

In the long term, if a government shutdown leads to a deterioration of the economic situation and the Federal Reserve ultimately confirms interest rate cuts, then theoretically, this would improve market liquidity, thereby providing support for risk assets including Bitcoin.

Currently, considering both the news and technical aspects, Bitcoin is overall maintaining a large-scale adjustment. Therefore, in the short term, we can operate with a strategy of selling high and buying low. With the upcoming National Day holiday, it is expected that the market will continue in a震荡模式. Bitcoin's large range can focus on the 110,000-115,000 area, while Ethereum can focus on the 4,000-4,300 area, and for the smaller range, pay attention to the contention around 11,300/4,200. #BTC

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.