#美联储降息预期升温 Yesterday, the market carried out technical repairs as expected, with an overall moderate strength but failing to form an effective reversal. After repairing to the 2-hour level, the price attempted to rise multiple times without success and eventually fell back. The "decapitation" pattern at the daily chart level faces significant difficulty in reversal—Bitcoin managed to recover two-thirds of the Bearish line drop at one point. The overall market performance is relatively weak, and after a day of repair, it is expected to return to a fluctuating downward trend today, as the daily chart has entered a falling cycle.

Technical analysis
High-level oscillation and correction, the "double top" pattern appeared on the 4-hour chart, while the MACD indicator's histogram has been continuously shrinking, increasing the risk of a short-term pullback. However, the overall "fear and greed index" of the market has not entered the extreme greed zone, indicating that investor sentiment is relatively stable. The 2-hour chart has shifted from yesterday's recovery to a downward adjustment. The upward momentum on the daily chart has weakened, and the appearance of the evening star pattern and the contraction of trading volume indicate a lack of sufficient buying support in the market.
The 1-hour level pullback has currently rebounded to the middle track support position of the channel. If it cannot hold here, we need to look for support at the lower boundary. To end the decline, it needs to break through this channel upwards; otherwise, we will mainly observe a sideways decline.
The spot ETF has seen a large net inflow for eight consecutive days. Although it has reached relatively high levels, the data shows that there is very little active selling, with most of the pressure coming from limited profit-taking by passive investors. The chip structure is very stable.
Cycle decomposition
weekly level
The overall trend structure remains robust, and attention should be paid to the fundamental developments. It is expected that the daily chart will maintain a range-bound pattern, and after the current adjustment phase ends, a new upward cycle is likely to commence.
daily chart
The bullish strength has somewhat converged, showing a shrinking bullish line pattern. Although a pullback occurred, the price quickly regained most of the lost ground and returned to the high range.
4-hour level
The Bollinger Bands remain open upwards but are temporarily flat, indicating that the trend has not changed while the pace has slowed, and the price is still operating in the strong area of the upper half of the Bollinger Bands.
The MACD bearish energy bars continue to narrow, with the pullback momentum gradually weakening, showing signs of a trend reversal and upward movement.
The KDJ indicator formed a golden cross at a low position and is steadily moving upwards, with short-term rebound momentum continuously being released.
Three indicators form a "trend stabilization + short-term timing" technical resonance, indicating that the probability of restarting the upward movement after the high-level consolidation is relatively high.